Abiove trims Brazil soybean export forecast, keeps crop estimate at 180.4m tons

Brazil’s soybean crop is expected to reach 180.4 million metric tons in 2026, unchanged from last month’s estimate, the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industries Association, known as Abiove, said on Friday, September 18.

Seaborne trade data obtained by Datamar show that Brazil exported approximately 76 million metric tons of soybeans through July. Of that total, about 71.65% was shipped to China.

The chart below shows the historical trend in Brazilian soybean exports to China since January 2022, based on DataLiner data:

Brazilian Soybean Exports to China | Jan 2022 – Jul 2026 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

The association lowered its forecast for Brazil soybean exports by 0.3%, to 115 million metric tons. Domestic soybean processing, meanwhile, was revised up 0.3% to 63.5 million tons. Imports of soybeans are expected to reach 900,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month.

Soymeal and soybean oil forecasts raised

Abiove also revised its 2026 processing estimates higher.

Soymeal production is now projected at 48.9 million tons, up 0.4% from the previous forecast, while exports were kept unchanged at 25.3 million tons.

For soybean oil, projected production was raised 0.4% to 12.8 million tons.

Exports were revised to 1.8 million tons, representing a 5.9% increase from the previous estimate.

Soybean oil imports remain projected at 125,000 tons.

According to Daniel Furlan Amaral, Abiove’s director of economics and regulatory affairs, the revisions reflect strong domestic soybean processing and firmer international demand for soybean oil.

Source: Globo Rural

Sharing is caring!