Argentina grain export dollars fall 3% in July despite record shipments

Argentina’s grain export sector brought in US$2.92 billion in July, down 3% from June, as foreign-exchange inflows continued to normalize after the exceptional volumes recorded last year under temporary export-tax incentives.

According to the Argentine Oil Industry Chamber and Grain Exporters Center, known as CIARA-CEC, companies in the oilseed and grain export complex liquidated US$16.30 billion from January to July 2026, down 16% from the same period in 2025.

The year-on-year decline reflects a difficult comparison base. In 2025, a temporary reduction in export duties accelerated farmer sales, export registrations and foreign-exchange inflows. This year, by contrast, trade has returned to a more regular commercialization pattern, without short-term incentives.

CIARA-CEC said July 2025 was shaped by the end of Decree 38/2025, which temporarily lowered export duties and generated an above-average flow of export sales and registrations. The chamber said 2026 looks more like a normal agricultural season, with no temporary schemes distorting the pace of grain sales.

Gustavo Idígoras, president of CIARA-CEC, said July inflows were similar to June because exports are following a normal crop-year pattern, without abrupt movements.

He said the current volume of grain and oilseed production points to a stable flow of exports throughout the year, giving producers greater predictability in the absence of short-term special regimes.

Comparison with 2025 weighs on figures

Javier Preciado Patiño, director of consultancy RIA, said the 16% decline in accumulated foreign-exchange inflows should be read against last year’s unusually high base.

He noted that 2025 included liquidation peaks in June, July and September, driven by official measures that accelerated grain sales. A similar pattern occurred in September 2022, when Argentina implemented a special soybean exchange-rate program that also boosted sales and dollar inflows.

Beyond that comparison, Preciado Patiño said the current market is behaving in line with the usual commercialization cycle. Dollar inflows typically rise around the harvest period, between May and July, before gradually declining over the following months.

He added that a significant volume of corn still needs to be registered and exported, although soybeans remain the main driver of foreign-exchange inflows for Argentina’s grain export sector.

The pace of sales will also depend on the macroeconomic environment and international prices. If producers do not expect a sharp devaluation, they are less likely to hold on to grain in anticipation of a better exchange rate. Stronger international prices could also accelerate sales, although producers often wait when markets begin to rise.

For soybeans, commercialization remains within normal parameters for this time of year. Between sales made before the formal start of the commercial season and transactions completed from April to July, around 22 million tonnes have already been marketed, close to half of what is typically sold from a 50-million-tonne crop.

Corn delays surprise market

Lorena D’Angelo, market analyst at AZ Group, said the July figure coming in below US$3 billion was a surprise to the market, which had expected a higher amount.

She said the shortfall was mainly linked to delays in the corn harvest. July and August are normally months when late corn sales make a larger contribution to foreign-exchange inflows.

D’Angelo said July also looked weaker when compared with July 2025, when exporters liquidated around US$4.1 billion. The same trend is visible in the year-to-date total and is largely tied to harvest delays caused by excess moisture in key grain-producing areas.

Still, she said the outlook for the rest of the year remains positive. Strong production levels and still-competitive international prices are supporting expectations for the coming months.

August will be important in determining whether the sector can exceed the US$31.4 billion in export-dollar inflows recorded in all of 2025. D’Angelo projected that August could bring in around US$3.1 billion, with lower monthly inflows expected afterward, except in December, when the winter crop begins to enter the market.

Argentina grain export sector hit record high

Despite the lower foreign-exchange liquidation, Argentina’s grain export activity remains strong.

According to the Rosario Board of Trade, exports of Argentina’s main grains and industrial byproducts reached a record 69 million tonnes between January and July, up 11.3% from the same period last year and above the previous high of 65 million tonnes recorded in 2022.

The strongest boost came from wheat, with 11.7 million tonnes exported, 70% above the average of recent years. Sunflower shipments reached 5 million tonnes, more than double normal levels.

The chart below compares wheat export volumes recorded in the January-May period in recent years. The data come from Datamar’s DataLiner platform:

Wheat Exports – Argentina | Jan-May | 2022-2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

The Rosario Board of Trade said the record shipment volume was driven by an exceptional harvest. While exports rose 6.1% from the previous record set in 2022, production increased 26%, leaving a comfortable exportable surplus for the months ahead.

In corn, export progress remains slightly below the five-year average, and domestic commitments are also below historical levels. That suggests a significant volume of corn is still available for new shipments in the coming months.

Commercial activity has also picked up in recent weeks, especially through faster price fixing. Soybean price fixings rose 7.8% in one week to 1.14 million tonnes, while corn fixings increased 5.2% to 1.39 million tonnes. New-crop wheat also recovered after several slow weeks, with fixings rising 30% and traded volume up nearly 20%.

For exporters, port operators and logistics companies, the figures show a split picture: Argentina grain export dollars are running below last year’s exceptional pace, but physical shipments remain at record levels. That combination points to continued cargo movement through grain ports, especially as corn availability and winter-crop flows support export activity in the months ahead.

Source: La Nación

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