Argentina posts May fiscal surplus as trade balance seen supported by oil, farm exports

Argentina posted a primary fiscal surplus of 1.924 trillion pesos ($1.34 billion) in May, Economy Minister Luis Caputo said on Wednesday (17), extending President Javier Milei’s drive to keep the public accounts in surplus. The result compared with a primary surplus of 632.8 billion pesos in April.

The fiscal result came as analysts also expected Argentina to report another solid monthly trade surplus, underscoring the role of external accounts as a key support for the economy. A Reuters poll published a day earlier showed a median forecast for a May trade surplus of $2 billion, with estimates ranging from $1.3 billion to $2.7 billion.

Analysts told Reuters the expected trade surplus was driven by strong crude and agricultural exports, while weak domestic demand, particularly in industry, kept import growth in check. Elevated oil prices, supported by supply disruptions linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict, also helped boost export receipts.

“The external trade surplus is becoming established as one of the macroeconomic pillars,” Pablo Besmedrisnik, economist and director at consultancy VDC, told Reuters. Another analyst cited in the report said the energy sector was generating roughly half of the surplus, highlighting a broader shift in the composition of Argentina’s economy.

According to the Reuters poll, the May estimate would imply Argentina accumulated a trade surplus of $9.5 billion in the first five months of 2026, up sharply from $1.9 billion in the same period a year earlier. One analyst projected full-year trade surplus at $15.8 billion.

Sources consulted:

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentinas-may-trade-surplus-expected-2-billion-helped-by-oil-farm-exports-2026-06-16/

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-logs-134-billion-fiscal-surplus-may-2026-06-17/

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