Brazil expected to return as world’s 10th-largest economy after GDP data

Brazil is expected to reclaim its spot as the world’s 10th-largest economy in 2026, according to International Monetary Fund projections compiled by consultancy Austin Ratings using data from 45 countries.

The estimate gained ground after Brazil’s gross domestic product grew 1.1% in the first quarter of this year, a performance that exceeded market expectations.

The survey shows that Brazil is expected to overtake Canada in the global ranking of the largest economies measured in current dollars. In 2024 and 2025, the country had fallen to 11th place after being overtaken by Russia and Canada.

Sixth-largest increase

Among the 45 countries analyzed by Austin Ratings, Brazil recorded the sixth-largest economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the previous three months.

Brazil’s performance trailed only Hong Kong, Taiwan, Denmark, South Korea and China. The increase also outpaced economies such as the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy.

According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), Brazil’s GDP grew 1.1% from January to March, driven mainly by the services sector and a recovery in investment.

Global ranking

According to IMF projections compiled by Austin Ratings, the world’s 10 largest economies in 2026 are expected to be:

1. United States: US$32.399 trillion
2. China: US$20.863 trillion
3. Germany: US$5.455 trillion
4. Japan: US$4.381 trillion
5. United Kingdom: US$4.267 trillion
6. India: US$4.158 trillion
7. France: US$3.597 trillion
8. Italy: US$2.739 trillion
9. Russia: US$2.655 trillion
10. Brazil: US$2.637 trillion

The gap between Brazil and Russia appears very narrow in the IMF estimates.

Exchange-rate effect

The ranking considers GDP in current dollars. As a result, in addition to economic growth, the exchange rate also directly affects each country’s position.

When the real strengthens against the dollar, the size of Brazil’s economy in U.S. currency increases. The same occurred with Russia in recent years, supported by the appreciation of the ruble and higher oil prices.

In April, the IMF recently revised its 2026 growth projection for Brazil from 1.6% to 1.9%. If that pace is sustained, the expectation is that the country will reach ninth place globally in 2027, overtaking Russia.

GDP per capita

Despite returning to the global top 10, Brazil remains far from the richest economies when measuring income per inhabitant.

According to the IMF, Brazil’s GDP per capita was estimated at about US$10,685 in 2025, well below developed countries and even smaller European economies. In the IMF ranking, Brazil ranks just below Albania, which had GDP per capita of US$11,234 last year.

Source: Agência Brasil

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