Brazil faces tougher competition for fertilizers after Trump tariff move

U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to temporarily suspend additional tariffs on certain phosphate fertilizers is expected to intensify competition with Brazil for supplies of the input ahead of the next crop season.

The suspension of countervailing duties, or anti-subsidy measures, will provide immediate relief to U.S. farmers by reducing phosphate fertilizer prices by about 22%. The measure could generate estimated annual savings of US$1.82 billion for around 100,000 farms covering 97 million cultivated acres.

As previously reported by Valor Econômico, Brazil has stepped up talks with Russia, China and Morocco to secure raw materials for phosphate fertilizers, a segment in which the country depends entirely on imports.

Datamar data shows a 39.2% surge in imported fertilizer volumes arriving at the Port of Itaqui between January and April 2024. The following breakdown tracks monthly import figures, based on data available on the DataLiner platform:

Fertilizer Imports | Jan 2023 – Apr 2026 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

According to the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock, CNA, only 40% to 45% of the fertilizers needed for the crop season about to begin have already been purchased. That means a significant share of demand still needs to be covered, underscoring Brazil’s exposure to external supply.

The U.N. trade and development agency UNCTAD has warned that risks to global food production remain high. Rising input prices, lingering disruptions to production and trade, and forecasts of a strong El Niño are adding to concerns over global food security.

For the United States, Morocco is one of the few suppliers able to quickly expand phosphate fertilizer shipments. The country is also one of the partners Brazil has approached in its effort to secure supply.

A study by Texas A&M University estimates that U.S. countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizers raised costs for American farmers by about US$6.9 billion between 2021 and 2025.

Announcing the temporary suspension, Trump said phosphate fertilizers are essential inputs for crops such as corn, soybeans and wheat, and that U.S. production is not enough to meet domestic demand.

The White House justified the move by citing recent disruptions in global supply chains and said the United States needs to diversify its suppliers to reduce shortage risks and protect food production.

Trump has also asked Congress for more than US$11 billion in aid for the agricultural sector to offset higher fuel and fertilizer costs since the start of the conflict with Iran. The amount would be added to the US$12 billion already allocated to U.S. farmers this year.

UNCTAD said that, although traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed, normalization in international trade will be gradual. Energy prices may adjust more quickly, but maritime transport, freight contracts and global supply chains are expected to take longer to stabilize.

The agency said the most vulnerable countries will be hit hardest by higher energy and food import costs. In all, 35 least developed countries and 26 small island developing states are highly dependent on oil and grain imports, leaving their economies especially exposed to rising international prices.

Source: Valor Econômico

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