Brazil fills regional demand as neighbors increase beef exports to United States

The United States’ decision to impose 50% tariffs on Brazilian beef has opened a new chapter in the international protein trade. The so-called “tariff shock” reduced Brazil’s competitiveness in direct access to the U.S. market, but it did not prevent the country from continuing to play a decisive role in global supply.

With the smallest cattle herd in 70 years, the U.S. faces a domestic supply challenge. To meet its demand, it has turned to alternative Mercosur suppliers — primarily Paraguay, Argentina, and Uruguay. These countries, in turn, have redirected a significant share of their output to the U.S. market while relying on Brazil to replenish their domestic consumption.

According to a survey by HN Agro, Paraguay purchased 1,482 tonnes of Brazilian beef through the third week of September 2025, a 327% increase compared to the 347 tonnes imported in September 2024.

The U.S., meanwhile, imported 4,575 tonnes of Brazilian beef through the third week of September 2025, marking a 78% decline from the 20,869 tonnes bought in September of the previous year.

See below a history of Brazilian meat exports to the United States, starting in January 2022. The chart was prepared with DataLiner data:

Brazilian Meat Exports to the United States | Jan 2022 to July 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

At the same time, Paraguayan exports to the U.S. increased by 40% during the same period, underscoring the country’s role as a regional redistribution hub. Analysts emphasize that direct triangulation of Brazilian beef to the U.S. is not allowed. In practice, substitution occurs: neighbors ship their own beef to the Americans and import from Brazil to maintain a steady supply to their domestic markets.

The president of ABIEC (Brazilian Beef Exporters Association), Roberto Perosa, stated that losses caused by the new tariffs should be smaller than initially feared.

He also denied the practice of triangulation to evade duties. According to Perosa, what is taking place is a market “opportunity.” He noted that Mexico, for instance, is a major global beef consumer. The country can use Brazilian beef to cover domestic demand while exporting its own production to the U.S.

This reshuffling is already visible in prices. Paraguayan steer prices hit an all-time high of US$71.70 per arroba last week, recording 12 consecutive weeks of increases, according to Scot Consultoria. That price is US$14.64 higher than the Brazilian arroba, which remains the cheapest among the world’s major suppliers (US$57.43/arroba in São Paulo state).

In Argentina, steer prices are at US$62.50/arroba, also above Brazil’s level. This reinforces the notion that, even penalized by tariffs, Brazil remains the most competitive supplier, serving as a “market reserve” for neighboring countries that need to meet domestic consumption without fueling local inflation.

According to Agrifatto, Brazil continues to have the lowest beef prices among leading global suppliers, averaging US$57.10/arroba last week.

Despite the tariff shock, estimates suggest Brazilian beef exports could grow by 10% in 2025, driven precisely by demand from regional partners.

“It’s not that Brazilian beef is reaching the U.S. through triangulation. What happens is that Argentina and Paraguay sell their output, and to rebuild stocks they turn to Brazil, which is the most competitive origin in the world,” explains Rodrigo Costa, analyst at PINE Agronegócios and contributor at TC Investimentos.

For Isabella Camargo, a livestock specialist and analyst at HN Agro, this domino effect highlights Brazil’s strategic importance: “The world depends on us for food. Even in the face of adversity, Brazilian agribusiness finds new pathways.”

Instead of weakening Brazilian beef exports, Donald Trump’s measure has ended up strengthening them. Expectations for September point to a new record in both volume and revenue.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas

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