Brazil iron ore exports head for new record in 2026

Brazilian iron ore exports are on track to set a new record in 2026, after reaching their highest level ever in 2025, when international shipments totaled 416.4 million metric tons.

In the first half of 2026, Brazil shipped 189.4 million metric tons of iron ore, up 2.4% from the same period last year.

Export revenue from iron ore totaled $13.43 billion in the first six months of the year, a 5.2% increase from the first half of 2025. In addition to higher volumes, stronger commodity prices also helped lift revenue.

Brazilian exporters obtained an average price of $104.75 per metric ton in the first half, up 3.7% from the same period in 2025, according to data from Brazil’s mining institute Ibram.

Vale, Brazil’s largest mining company, produced 153.9 million metric tons and recorded total iron ore sales of 148.4 million metric tons in the first half, up 3.5% from a year earlier. In 2025, Vale produced 336 million metric tons. Its projection for 2026 is between 335 million and 345 million metric tons.

Globally, seaborne iron ore trade moved 1.77 billion metric tons in 2025, according to S&P Global. China was the destination for 75% of shipments. Australia led international sales, with 977.2 million metric tons, while Brazil ranked second.

The chart below shows the share of the Brazilian ports that handled the largest volumes of iron ore exports in the first half of 2026:

Main Ports – Iron Ore | H1 2026 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

“The market estimate is that global demand will remain at the same level until 2030, perhaps with a slight reduction, but without generating a significant impact on international prices, which should remain around $100 per metric ton for ore with 61% iron content,” said Daniel Sasson, a commodities analyst at Itaú BBA.

Analysts see stable demand and prices

Analysts broadly expect demand and prices to remain stable, even though some signs of contraction have appeared in the market.

Global steel production fell 2% in 2025 to 1.85 billion metric tons, according to the World Steel Association. In China, the decline was sharper, down 4.4% to 960.8 million metric tons.

Still, World Steel projects growth in steel production and consumption across several countries. India expects to double steel output by 2030, reaching 300 million metric tons a year. Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria and the United States are also expected to increase production in the coming years.

On the iron ore supply side, 2025 marked the start of the ramp-up of Simandou, one of the world’s largest mining projects, in Guinea. The project belongs to Rio Tinto and a consortium of Chinese companies. Output is expected to reach 120 million metric tons per year by 2030. The ore has a high iron content, at 65%.

Sasson said Simandou should not create an oversupply of iron ore.

“It will only replace depleted or low-productivity mines, mainly in Australia,” he said.

The estimate is that the end of the useful life of older mines will remove about 3% of global output from the market, or between 50 million and 55 million metric tons per year. Over four years, that would amount to more than 200 million metric tons.

“Simandou adds 120 million metric tons per year. We will still need new supply to maintain balance,” Sasson said.

Brazilian miners prepare for global demand

Brazilian producers are positioning themselves to meet global demand. Ibram projects that iron ore mining investments in Brazil will total $19.8 billion through 2030.

At Vale, the country’s largest miner, 2026 guidance for iron ore investments stands at $3.9 billion. The company has set a target of reaching production capacity of 360 million metric tons by 2030.

Cedro Mineração expects to raise its production capacity to 20 million metric tons by 2032. With two mines, one in Nova Lima and another in Mariana, both in Minas Gerais state, the company currently produces 7 million metric tons a year.

The project will be gradual. The first stage calls for investments estimated at $700 million to expand production capacity in Mariana from 5 million to 7 million metric tons by 2028. In a second stage, still without a defined budget, Cedro plans to expand Mariana’s output to 10 million metric tons a year. The rest of the production increase will come from newly acquired areas in Minas Gerais’ central-southern region.

Cedro’s focus is pellet feed, a product with iron content above 55% and low impurities.

“It is a product that enables steel production with lower greenhouse gas emissions and savings of $15 to $20 per metric ton,” said José Carlos Martins, chairman of Cedro’s board.

In the international market, pellets are valued at a premium of $10 to $15 per metric ton.

Today, Cedro’s output is sold domestically, either to local steelmakers or to mining companies that use it in blends for export.

“With annual production around 20 million metric tons, we will have the scale to participate directly in the international market,” Martins said.

Samarco invests to restore pellet capacity

Samarco has announced R$13.8 billion in investment, the largest in its history, to raise iron ore pellet production capacity from 15.1 million to 26 million metric tons by 2030.

In practice, the miner will return to the production capacity it had until 2015, before the Fundão dam disaster in Mariana, Minas Gerais. The dam collapse caused deaths and socio-environmental damage along the Doce River all the way to the coast of Espírito Santo state.

The budget agreed with public authorities to repair damage and compensate affected families totals R$170 billion, of which R$80.4 billion has already been disbursed.

Today, Samarco’s tailings are dry-stacked, eliminating the need for a dam. The investments include upgrades to concentration assets at the Germano complex in Mariana, where the ore is processed to reach 66% iron content, and the overhaul of two of the company’s four pelletizing units in Ubu, Espírito Santo.

“There is strong interest in iron ore pellets in global steelmaking because of the material’s ability to decarbonize the production process,” said Samarco CEO Rodrigo Vilela.

“While one metric ton of steel produced with iron ore sinter generates 600 kg of CO₂ emissions, that same ton emits 80 kg of CO₂ when pellets are used,” he said.

Vilela estimates that the international iron ore pellet market will grow from the current 120 million metric tons to 250 million metric tons by 2030.

Brazil Iron develops HBI project in Bahia

In Bahia state, Brazil Iron is developing an integrated iron ore production project in Piatã and a hot briquetted iron, or HBI, unit in Ilhéus.

HBI has purity above 93% and can also significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the steelmaking process.

The investment totals $5.7 billion. The company expects to begin operations in 2030, with capacity of 5 million metric tons of HBI per year. Production will be entirely exported.

“We already have 10 years of production sold,” said Emerson Souza, Brazil Iron’s vice president of institutional relations.

Source: Valor Econômico

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