Brazilian coffee export volumes fall from previous crop year, Cepea says

Brazilian coffee exports are running below last season’s levels in the 2025/26 crop year, with shipments totaling 35.4 million 60-kg bags so far, down 18% from the previous cycle, according to a survey released Wednesday (24) by Cepea, the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics.

In the previous crop year, Brazil exported 43 million bags. Export revenue, however, remained broadly stable at US$13.7 billion, down by only US$100 million from the prior season.

“The result reflects the effect of high coffee prices throughout the 2025/26 crop year, which largely offset the drop in export volume,” Cepea said.

According to the research center, the decline in shipments reflected lower production and reduced inventories, which were at historically low levels.

Throughout the cycle, producers adopted a cautious sales strategy and were in no rush to draw down stocks, supported by strong prices during the season.

Next crop

Negotiations gained momentum from May onward as harvesting of the 2026/27 crop intensified. Cepea researchers said, however, that stronger trading has not yet translated into higher shipments.

“That movement is unlikely to result in immediate shipments, since freshly harvested coffee still requires time for preparation and processing before it can be exported in significant volumes,” they said.

Export volumes are expected to increase gradually from June.

RaboResearch estimates that Brazil’s next crop will reach 73.3 million 60-kg bags, including 46.7 million bags of arabica and 26.6 million bags of robusta.

El Niño could affect future coffee crops in producing countries

The confirmation of a new El Niño episode for the second half of 2026 is putting weather back among the main factors to watch in the global coffee market.

Although the effects vary depending on the producing region and the stage of the crop cycle when the phenomenon occurs, market participants are expected to closely monitor potential impacts on global supply over the coming years.

According to an analysis by consultancy Hedgepoint Global Markets, El Niño’s impact on coffee production depends on the intensity and duration of the event, the timing of its occurrence and the specific weather conditions in each producing origin. As a result, the effects may differ across regions and crop years.

Brazil

In Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter, Hedgepoint’s current view is that the 2026/27 crop should not be directly affected by the weather phenomenon. That outlook reduces immediate risks to Brazilian crops. Still, a wetter autumn and winter could delay harvesting and bring some volatility to the market.

Although the consultancy expects limited effects on the current crop, it said challenges may emerge for the following season.

“In Brazil, production in the 2026/27 crop should not be affected, but challenges may arise for the progress of the harvest, and attention should be paid to the flowering stage,” said Laleska Moda, market intelligence analyst at Hedgepoint.

Recent Datamar data shows that Brazil exported 32,646 TEUs of coffee beans in the first four months of the year. The chart below provides a breakdown of Brazil’s monthly coffee export figures:

Coffee Exports | Jan-Apr | 2022 – 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Central America and Asia

Outside Brazil, risks linked to El Niño are expected to be more significant. Hedgepoint said important producing origins in Central America and Asia could face negative effects in both the 2026/27 and 2027/28 crops.

With the probability of a strong El Niño event increasing between late 2026 and early 2027, the potential impact comes from changes in weather patterns normally associated with the phenomenon, which could affect key stages of crop development.

Source: Globo Rural

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