Brazil may lose up to USD 4 billion in soybean exports due to U.S.–China agreement

The recent agreement between the United States and China, which provides for the resumption of U.S. soybean purchases by Beijing, may result in a short-term loss of up to USD 4 billion in Brazilian export revenue from soybean sales to the Chinese market (over three to six months).

Information released so far about the preliminary agreement signed between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the end of October in South Korea indicates that Chinese purchases of at least 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans will resume by January 2026, and that purchases will reach 25 million tonnes per year by 2028.

This move tends to reduce China’s dependence on Brazilian supply, which in recent years has accounted for 70% to 80% of China’s soybean imports.

See below a history of Brazilian soybean exports to China starting in 2022. The chart was prepared with DataLiner data:

Brazilian Soybean Exports to China | Jan 2022 to Sep 2025 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (Clique aqui para solicitar uma demo)

The negative impact is moderate in the risk scenarios analyzed by a specialist: if the Trump–Xi agreement is fully implemented, with annual purchases of 25 million tonnes, this could result in a loss of up to USD 4 billion in Brazilian exports to the Chinese market.

For comparison, the estimate for this year was nearly USD 34 billion in Brazilian soybean sales to China.

If the agreement is only partially executed, with average purchases of 15 to 20 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans, the revenue loss for Brazil would be smaller, around USD 2.5 billion.

However, even among U.S. producers, there is distrust regarding the stability of the agreement, given Trump’s unpredictability. In a scenario of rupture and reinstatement of high tariffs on U.S. soybeans, Chinese purchases would tend to increase again in Brazil. This could generate additional gains of close to USD 1.5 billion for Brazilian exporters.

For his part, André Nassar, executive president of Abiove (Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries), does not mention values, but his estimates of the expected reduction in Brazilian exports to China in the short term appear to align with these projections.

Before the U.S.–China agreement, Abiove forecasted Brazilian soybean exports to the Chinese market at 84 million tonnes in 2025, compared to 72 million in 2024. With a conservative projection, keeping November and December at the same level as last year, the annualized volume for 2025 could now be 82 million tonnes, already considering the impact of the new agreement.

Thus, Nassar notes, Brazil should still export 10 million tonnes more than last year, even with the return of U.S. soybeans to the Chinese market.

For 2026, if the U.S.–China flow normalizes, the projection is for Brazilian sales to fall to 72 to 75 million tonnes, a decline of 7 to 10 million tonnes compared to 2025.

Other factors putting pressure on the sector must also be considered, such as competition from Argentina, which is projected to increase exports by 17% in 2025–26 and is disputing alternative markets to China.

When the U.S.–China agreement was announced two weeks ago, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated: “Our large soybean producers, who the Chinese used as political pawns, are off the table. They should thrive in the coming years.”

However, reporting from The Wall Street Journal showed that many American farmers still feel like “pawns.” They fear that tensions between Beijing and Washington may escalate again, putting soybean producers back into a delicate situation. They remain vulnerable to a new escalation that could undo the Trump–Xi agreement.

One of the farmers interviewed noted that although the agreement may help financially in the short term, it does not resolve the structural challenge: Brazil. The country surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest soybean exporter more than a decade ago, driven by investment and abundant arable land.

“Brazil keeps expanding every year — they have land and cheap labor, and some very savvy farmers over there,” the producer told the WSJ.

Uncertainty persists at a bad time for American soybean farmers, who face rising costs and depressed prices. They are also trying to accelerate the search for new markets.

According to The Wall Street Journal, feed processors and food companies in Thailand, traditionally buyers from Brazil, have increased purchases of U.S. soybeans. Bangladesh, Pakistan, and European countries are also expanding their purchases, while Egypt and Morocco are emerging as potential growth markets in the view of U.S. exporters.

Source: Globo Rural

Sharing is caring!