Brazil raises 2026 trade surplus forecast to US$90 billion

The Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services in Brazil has raised its forecast for the country’s 2026 trade surplus to US$90 billion, up from a previous estimate of US$72.1 billion.

If confirmed, the result would be the second-largest trade surplus in Brazil’s historical series, behind only the figure recorded in 2023. It would also represent a 32.3% increase from the US$68.1 billion surplus posted in 2025.

The revised forecast was announced on Friday (3), after the government identified stronger-than-expected export and import performance in the first half of the year. Exports rose 11.5% in the first six months, despite the war in the Middle East and tariffs imposed by Donald Trump’s administration.

Revised forecast

In addition to the trade surplus estimate, the ministry also revised its projections for Brazil’s overall trade flow in 2026.

Brazil is now expected to export US$394.4 billion this year, US$30.2 billion more than the forecast released in April. The import forecast was raised from US$292.1 billion to US$304.4 billion.

According to Herlon Brandão, the ministry’s director of foreign trade statistics and studies, the revision reflects an acceleration in Brazil’s foreign trade.

“We observed an acceleration in flows, both exports and imports, which helped raise the projected figure,” he said.

Record June

The new estimates were released alongside Brazil’s June trade balance figures.

In June, Brazil posted a US$9.8 billion trade surplus, driven by record exports of US$36.3 billion, up 24.9% from June 2025. Imports totaled US$26.5 billion, up 14.4%.

The result was supported mainly by the extractive industry, whose exports rose 58.4%.

Oil drives export growth

Crude oil was the main driver of the increase in exports.

According to the ministry, export value rose due to a combination of higher international prices and greater shipped volumes. Compared with June last year, crude oil prices increased 67.6%, while export volume rose 6.8%.

Soybean exports from the agriculture sector also contributed to the result, along with higher sales of meat, fuels and soybean meal by the manufacturing industry.

First-half balance

From January through June, Brazil’s trade surplus reached US$42.4 billion, up from US$30.2 billion in the same period of 2025.

In the first half, exports totaled US$184.8 billion, while imports reached US$142.4 billion, reinforcing the government’s expectation of a strong year for Brazil’s foreign trade in 2026.

Source: Agência Brasil

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