Brazil: revenue from November exports increase as volume surges

Dec, 02, 2022 Posted by Gabriel Malheiros

Week 202248

As in October, the value of Brazilian exports increased in November, owing to a volume surge that escalated faster than the average prices compared to the same month last year. Imports, on the other hand, decreased in value and volume in November but increased in price.

Even with the recently delineated scenario, the trade balance should end the year driven by prices at both ends.

The trade balance surplus reached US$ 6.7 billion in November after US$ 28.2 billion in exports and US$ 21.5 billion in imports, according to the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex/ME).

Export revenue in November rose 30.5% over the same month of 2021, with a 27.2% increase in volumes and 8% in prices, with variations always calculated by the average per working day. On the other hand, Brazilian purchases of foreign products fell by 5.5% in value, with a 4.9% drop in volumes. Prices, however, continued to rise, up 7.6%.

In the first 11 months of the year, year-to-date, exports increased in value by 9.9%, with a rise of 14.1% in average export prices and 6% in volume. The imported value increased by 25.5%, with a 2.5% increase in volumes and a 25.2% jump in prices, always compared to the same months of 2021.

Rafael Cagnin, an economist at the Institute of Studies for Industrial Development (Iedi), assesses that the drop in the value of imports in November does not reflect a contraction in domestic demand.

He recalls that in November of last year, due to the ongoing water crisis, there were large-scale imports of energy sources such as fuel, coal, and gas at exorbitant prices. In addition, imports increased in November 2021 due to the need for fertilizers and medicines.

Thus, the fact that the value of imports dropped in November may be explained by the unusually high costs seen last year.

Year-on-year, fuels, fertilizers, natural gas, and medicines all experienced drops.

According to the undersecretary for Intelligence and Foreign Trade Statistics at the Ministry of Economy, Herlon Brandão, it is “probable” that this year’s trade balance surplus will be above the ministry’s most recent projection.

The most recent forecast indicated a surplus of $55.4 billion. The economic indicator from January to November is positive at US$ 58 billion.

He recalled that December is traditionally a month of surplus for Brazilian exports. According to him, export growth in 2022 “is slightly above forecast,” while imports are in line with expectations.

Source: Valor Econômico

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