Brazil seeks to reduce fertilizer dependence

With about 86% of its fertilizer needs met through imports — a figure that rises to around 95% for potash and nitrogen fertilizers and 70% for phosphates — Brazil is trying to reduce that dependence. Data from the National Supply Company, or Conab, show international purchases of 45.5 million tonnes in 2025, at a cost of $15.5 billion.

Data obtained by Datamar shows a 12.3% decline in Brazil’s fertilizer imports in the first quarter of the year. See more details below:

Fertilizer Imports | Jan-Mar 2026 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Several projects are under way to ease those figures. One is the Taquari-Vassouras complex in Rosário do Catete, Sergipe state, the only potassium chloride mine currently operating in Brazilian territory. In November last year, Mosaic sold the asset to Stratos, the new name of VL Mineração, a company controlled by the Batista family, owners of JBS, which has expansion plans for the site.

Current production is about 500,000 tonnes and, according to Stratos commercial director Ricardo Nascimento, that volume should grow 11% in 2026. The mine, acquired for about $27 million, had been expected to have another nine years of useful life, but Stratos studies point to extraction potential for another two decades.

“There is potential for expansion over the coming years as new investments and operational improvements are implemented,” the executive said. Stratos has already signed contracts to supply potassium chloride to fertilizer manufacturers and farmers.

Another planned project is Autazes, in Amazonas state, led by Potássio do Brasil, a subsidiary of Canadian miner Brazil Potash Corp. It is in the Amazon, an environmentally sensitive region, that Brazil’s largest potash reserves are located and, for that reason, the project has become the focus of a legal battle. In April, the Indigenous Missionary Council accused the mining company of clearing land inside the Lago do Soares Indigenous Territory, an area claimed by the Mura people.

The territory is currently in the identification and delimitation study phase at Brazil’s National Foundation for Indigenous Peoples.

Fernando Merloto Soave, a federal prosecutor in Amazonas state, said there are multiple violations involving Indigenous territories in the Amazon project, including the absence of prior, free, informed and good-faith consultation with Indigenous peoples and traditional communities.

Last year, Brazil’s Federal Regional Court of the 1st Region upheld the authority of Amazonas state environmental agency Ipaam, rather than Ibama, the federal environmental regulator, to license the project, a decision the federal prosecutor’s office is contesting. “It is not correct for a state agency to issue licenses that affect Indigenous territories,” Soave said.

Potássio do Brasil did not respond to contact attempts by the original report. In an investor presentation on the project’s 2026 status, the company said construction had begun and that minimum off-take contracts were already in place. The miner also wants the project to qualify for tax incentives. The Autazes project calls for $2.5 billion in investment and annual production capacity of 2.4 million tonnes.

According to Marilia Morelli, an analyst at Yeb Inteligência de Mercado, the Autazes project could meet about 20% of current Brazilian potash demand. “It is a relevant contribution, but still limited given the scale of total imports,” she said. As for Taquari-Vassouras, she sees it more as “a shock absorber than a structural solution,” since it appears to be a mature asset.

She noted that although the economic and logistics case in favor of the Autazes project is strong — reducing Brazilian agribusiness exposure to external shocks and shortening the supply chain — the social and environmental cost is far from trivial. The potash market outlook for 2026, she said, is “supplied, but more volatile and more expensive than it looked at the start of the year.”

With the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, prices, especially for nitrogen fertilizers, have already risen about 20%. To help reduce external dependence and the impact of geopolitical disruptions on supply, Petrobras has returned to the fertilizer sector.

The state-run oil company resumed production in December at its nitrogen fertilizer plant in Laranjeiras, Sergipe state, which has already reached 90% of its maximum capacity of 1,800 tonnes per day of urea, a product with high nitrogen content. The unit also produces ammonia. In January, operations resumed at the Camaçari plant in Bahia state, which has already exceeded 95% of capacity, producing about 1,300 tonnes per day of urea, in addition to ammonia and Arla 32, a reagent used in diesel engines.

The two northeastern plants received an initial 76 million reais in investment. Petrobras was also planning to restart operations in April at Araucária Nitrogenados, or Ansa, in Paraná state, a plant with capacity to produce 720,000 tonnes of urea per year as well as other inputs.

The plants in the Northeast and Ansa could meet 20% of domestic urea demand and, from 2029 onward, Petrobras could raise that share to 35%. That is when a new state-owned plant in Três Lagoas, Mato Grosso do Sul state, is expected to start production. Investment in that facility is about $1 billion.

The Iran war, Morelli said, affects nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers much more directly than potash. “That is because natural gas, sulfur and the Gulf route itself carry greater weight in those markets,” the analyst said.

Source: Valor Econômico

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