Brazil trade surplus expected to reach $78 billion in 2026, institutions project

Through the fourth week of September, with data recorded through Sept. 26, Brazil’s trade balance posted a surplus of $61.77 billion, reflecting exports of $281.34 billion — up 11.5% from the same period in 2025 — and imports totaling $219.57 billion, an increase of 6.0% year over year. The figures were released on Monday, Sept. 28, by the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services.

The year-to-date figures indicate that the MDIC’s projection of a $90 billion trade surplus by the end of the year is unlikely to be met. That forecast would represent growth of 32.3% from 2025 and is based on projected exports of $394.4 billion and imports of $304.4 billion.

With three months left in the year, estimates projecting a trade surplus of around $72 billion to $78 billion appear more likely to prevail, according to institutions including Brazil’s Central Bank, FGV/Ibre’s Icomex foreign trade indicator and specialized private-sector consultancies.

Between AEB’s Greater Optimism and the More Conservative Estimates from the Central Bank, FGV and Consultancies

Likewise, the chances of reaching the projection issued by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB) in its revised trade surplus forecast released on July 28 appear even slimmer. At the time, AEB raised its projections for Brazil’s 2026 trade balance and estimated that the country would end the year with a surplus of $94.067 billion — up 38% from the $68.166 billion recorded in 2025.

Exports are expected to reach $385.275 billion, an increase of 10.6%, while imports are projected at $291.208 billion, up 4%, bringing total trade flows to $676.483 billion, a 7.6% increase from the previous year.

According to AEB, the study, prepared by the association using data provided by Funcex, reflected the stronger-than-expected performance recorded in the first half of the year. The report said uncertainty in the international environment was driving a recovery in prices and, to a lesser extent, volumes, pointing to higher exports, more modest import growth and, as a result, a significant expansion in the trade surplus.

AEB’s revised outlook shows Brazil’s 2026 performance unfolding against a highly unpredictable global backdrop. The report lists several factors directly affecting Brazilian foreign trade, including the tariff increases imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

“We know that President Trump adopted the tariffs without technical criteria and without predictability — it was more of an impulsive decision. The conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the confrontation between the United States and Iran, blockages in the Strait of Hormuz, China’s aggressive trade stance and the potential climate effects of El Niño are other aggravating factors,” said AEB Executive President José Augusto de Castro.

More conservative estimates, and therefore those seen as more likely to materialize, include the projection from Brazil’s Central Bank through its weekly Focus survey of key Brazilian macroeconomic indicators, which points to a trade surplus of $78 billion this year.

FGV/Ibre’s Foreign Trade Indicator (Icomex) projects a 2026 trade surplus of between $72 billion and $75 billion, while specialized private-sector consultancies are working with the possibility of Brazil ending 2026 with a positive trade balance of around $76 billion.

Source: Comex do Brasil

Sharing is caring!