Brazilian agribusiness GDP falls 2.01% in Q1, but exports support logistics demand

Brazil’s agribusiness GDP fell 2.01% in the first quarter of 2026, extending the slowdown seen at the end of last year, according to Cepea, the University of São Paulo’s Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics, and the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA).

The decline was driven mainly by the crop side of the sector. Still, the report shows that foreign trade and cargo flows continued to support demand for agribusiness-related services, especially in export-oriented grain, meat and forest-product supply chains.

Performance was uneven across the industry. Crop agriculture contracted 3.62% in the quarter, while livestock grew 0.70%. Across the main agribusiness segments, GDP fell 2.15% in inputs, 4.15% in primary production, 1.03% in agroindustry and 1.25% in services.

Cepea projects that Brazil’s agribusiness GDP will reach R$3.13 trillion in 2026, with R$1.88 trillion coming from crop agriculture and R$1.25 trillion from livestock. That would leave agribusiness accounting for about 22.8% of Brazil’s economy this year, down from 25.2% in 2025.

Lower prices weigh on producers

The drop in agribusiness GDP early in the year was largely the result of lower real prices received by producers.

GDP in primary crop production fell 5.72%, even though output is expected to rise for major commodities such as coffee, sugarcane and soybeans.

According to the report, higher production was not enough to offset weaker prices. Cotton, rice, coffee, sugarcane, oranges, corn, soybeans and wheat were among the crops that contributed most to the negative price effect.

The primary livestock segment also declined, falling 1.77%. Cepea said production is expected to grow across all livestock activities it monitors, especially poultry and pork, but lower prices reduced the overall value of production.

Livestock helps support services and logistics

For foreign trade and logistics operators, one of the report’s most relevant findings was the performance of services tied to agribusiness.

Agribusiness services GDP fell 1.25% in the first quarter, but the results differed sharply between crop agriculture and livestock.

Services linked to crop agriculture dropped 3.40%, reflecting weaker activity in inputs, primary production and agroindustry. That reduced demand for transport, storage, trade and specialized services.

In livestock, however, agribusiness services grew 1.86%. The increase followed the expansion of livestock-based agroindustry, which rose 1.93%, supported by higher slaughter and processing volumes for beef, pork and chicken.

The figures show that major animal protein export chains continued to support logistics activity even as parts of the crop sector lost momentum.

Exports continue to drive service demand

Exports remained an important source of demand for agribusiness-related cargo movement.

Agrostat data from Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture, cited in the report, show that Brazilian agribusiness exports rose 0.52% in the first quarter of 2026 from the same period in 2025.

Although growth was more modest than in previous years, export activity continued to generate demand for logistics, financial, administrative and foreign trade support services, particularly in grain, meat and forest-product chains.

Cargo movement also remained resilient. According to data from Brazil’s national land transportation agency ANTT, cited by Cepea, total cargo volumes rose 4.85% in the first quarter from a year earlier.

The result suggests that transport demand linked to the movement of agricultural and agroindustrial goods remained active, even as agribusiness GDP slowed.

Diesel consumption provided another sign of continued freight activity. Diesel sales rose 2.89% year on year in the first quarter, while ethanol sales fell 6.76%.

Inputs and agroindustry face tighter conditions

The input segment contracted 2.15% in the first quarter.

In crop agriculture, the decline reflected weaker performance in the pesticide and agricultural machinery industries, which were pressured by narrower producer margins, tighter credit and more cautious investment decisions.

The fertilizer and soil amendment industry was projected to post a 1.03% increase in production value, supported by a 3.80% rise in output despite a 2.67% decline in real prices.

Cepea warned, however, that the estimates may not fully capture the effects of the recent escalation of conflicts in the Middle East on fertilizers, inputs and logistics costs.

Agroindustry GDP fell 1.03%. The decline was driven by crop-based activities, which dropped 2.31%, with negative contributions from the coffee and sugar industries.

Livestock-based agroindustries moved in the opposite direction, growing 1.93% on the back of stronger meat supply chains.

Foreign trade remains central to agribusiness logistics

For transport companies, warehouse operators, port terminals, trading companies and foreign trade providers, the report points to a clear split: Brazil’s agribusiness GDP lost steam at the start of 2026, but export flows and cargo movement continued to sustain a significant share of logistics demand.

Lower crop revenues tend to weigh on investment and purchasing decisions involving inputs, machinery and services.

At the same time, growth in animal protein chains and continued exports of grains, meat and forest products keep agribusiness among Brazil’s main cargo generators.

Performance over the rest of the year will depend on international prices, exchange rates, logistics costs, credit conditions and the pace of exports.

Even with sector GDP in decline, the Cepea/CNA report indicates that foreign trade continues to cushion logistics activity linked to Brazilian agribusiness.

Source: Cepea

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