U.S., Chile and Russia Offset Drop in Brazilian Beef Exports to China

Growth in Brazilian beef exports to the United States, Chile and Russia has offset the decline in shipments to China in 2026, according to an analysis by Canal Rural based on data from Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC).

Foreign trade data from Datamar already point to a sharp drop in frozen beef shipments to China. In July 2026, seaborne shipments totaled just 2,350 TEUs, down nearly 80% from June.

Beef Exports to China | Jan 2023 – Jul 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner – explore our trade data

During the first eight months of the year, Chinese purchases fell by around 75,000 tonnes, while the three other markets increased their combined imports of Brazilian beef by approximately 114,000 tonnes.

From January through August 2025, China imported around 948,000 tonnes of Brazilian beef. Over the same period in 2026, the volume fell to approximately 873,000 tonnes, a decline of nearly 8%.

Despite the decrease, China remains the leading destination for Brazilian beef and continues to be considered a strategic market for the industry.

Brazilian Beef Exports Gain Ground in the United States

Among the main markets that increased purchases, the largest gain in volume came from the United States.

Brazilian shipments to the U.S. rose from approximately 176,000 tonnes between January and August 2025 to 241,000 tonnes over the same period this year. The increase amounted to 65,000 tonnes, or around 37%.

The growth in sales to the United States alone was therefore enough to offset a large share of the 75,000-tonne decline in Chinese purchases during the period.

Brazilian beef also benefited from more favorable conditions in the U.S. market after being excluded from the additional tariffs imposed by the United States on a range of Brazilian products.

Chile also gained share among the destinations for Brazilian beef exports. Shipments rose from around 80,000 tonnes in the first eight months of 2025 to 106,000 tonnes over the same period in 2026, an increase of approximately 26,000 tonnes, or 32.5%.

Russia recorded a similar trend. Purchases increased from 60,000 tonnes to 83,000 tonnes, a gain of 23,000 tonnes, or around 38%.

Combined, the United States, Chile and Russia purchased approximately 430,000 tonnes of Brazilian beef between January and August this year, compared with 316,000 tonnes over the same period in 2025.

The 114,000-tonne increase across the three markets exceeded the roughly 75,000-tonne decline in shipments to China. Mexico, on the other hand, recorded a slight decrease, with purchases totaling close to 66,000 tonnes.

China Quota Increases Pressure to Diversify Brazilian Beef Exports

The search for alternative markets also became more important after Brazil reached in September the quota of approximately 1.1 million tonnes established for beef exports to the Chinese market in 2026.

Shipments above that volume are subject to an additional 55% tariff, which, when added to the regular 12% import duty, brings the total tariff to 67%.

Against this backdrop, the government and industry are seeking alternatives to expand the quota or reduce the tariff burden. Until access conditions in China change, the strategy is increasingly focused on diversifying buyers for Brazilian beef exports.

Despite the restrictions, China continues to be considered essential to Brazil’s cattle industry because of the volume it purchases.

Brazilian Beef Exports Could Still Set a Record

Even with the decline in Chinese purchases, Brazil could still set a new record for beef exports in 2026.

Last year, the country shipped approximately 3.1 million tonnes of beef. During the first eight months of this year, exports totaled around 1.91 million tonnes.

If Brazil can match between September and December the volume exported during the same four months of 2025, shipments could reach approximately 3.15 million tonnes by the end of 2026.

That would be enough to surpass last year’s total and set a new annual record, despite the restrictions affecting the largest market for Brazilian beef.

Source: Canal Rural

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