Brazilian panettone exports jump 42% despite U.S. tariffs

Brazil’s panettone industry closed the 2025/26 season with sharply different results at home and abroad. Domestic revenue rose 3.5% to R$1.36 billion, even as sales volume fell 3.4%. On the export side, Brazilian panettone exports increased 42.6% in revenue from January to July, reaching $6.7 million, as manufacturers rushed shipments ahead of new U.S. tariffs.

Domestic market figures come from Worldpanel by Numerator, in a survey commissioned by Abimapi, Brazil’s association of biscuit, pasta, industrial bread and cake manufacturers, and presented at Salão do Panetone 2026. Export data comes from Comex Stat, the foreign trade database run by Brazil’s development, industry, trade and services ministry, and was compiled by the association.

Although panettone exports (HS code 1905.20.10) are mostly concentrated in the second half of the year because of the product’s association with the holiday season, Datamar foreign trade data point to a strong start for the sector. According to the company, seaborne shipments of the product reached 288 TEUs between May and June. Compared with the entire first half of 2025, that performance represents a 269.2% increase. The chart below provides a full overview of seaborne shipments recorded in recent years:

Panettone Exports | Jan 2023 – Jun 2026 | TEUs

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Domestic revenue rises despite lower volumes

According to the survey, Brazil’s panettone segment sold 50,000 metric tons during the season, down 3.4% from the previous year. Even so, revenue increased by R$45.8 million, reflecting stronger demand for premium products, as consumers chose more sophisticated fillings and higher value-added options despite paying more per unit.

Claudio Zanão, executive president of Abimapi, said the result confirms the product’s importance in Brazilian household spending plans.

“The positive financial result reaffirms the strength of the product in family shopping plans and in national retail, while also reflecting the symbolic and emotional value that panettone has for Brazilians,” Zanão said. He also highlighted the industry’s investment in more sophisticated fillings and larger packages designed for shared consumption.

David Fiss, business development director at Worldpanel by Numerator in Brazil, described the cycle as challenging but resilient.

“Although 2025 and 2026 were a challenging cycle for the panettone category, especially with a more selective consumer, greater pressure on prices and changes in purchasing choices, panettone continues to play an extremely relevant role in Brazil’s year-end season,” Fiss said.

Exports surge as companies bring shipments forward

Abroad, Brazilian panettone exports totaled $6.7 million between January and July 2026, up from $4.7 million in the same period of 2025. In volume, Brazil shipped 1,800 metric tons of the product, a 63.6% jump from 1,100 tons a year earlier.

According to Abimapi, the movement was driven by the tariff hike imposed by the United States, which led companies to concentrate shipments in June and July. That broke with the sector’s usual seasonal pattern. Between 2021 and 2024, Brazilian panettone exports were typically concentrated in August and September.

Rodrigo Iglesias, Abimapi’s international director, said the result reflected how quickly Brazilian companies responded to the new tariffs.

“Faced with the pressure of new customs duties, Brazilian companies adopted highly precise action plans for factory performance, bringing panettone shipments forward. This ensured that products reached U.S. inventories competitively, supplying the market before sales campaigns began,” Iglesias said.

Still, he cautioned that the pace is unlikely to be sustained.

“The scenario remains challenging, since new shipments should take place under the new tariff conditions. We do not believe growth at this level will be sustainable through the end of the year,” Iglesias said. He estimates that about 35% of the total volume expected for the full cycle has already been shipped to the United States.

United States remains the largest buyer

The United States remained the top destination for Brazilian panettone exports, with shipments totaling $4.3 million and 1.3 million kilograms between January and July 2026.

The U.S. market, however, has been losing relative share. Its portion of total Brazilian shipments fell from 60% in 2024 to 55% in 2025, after a 7.5% decline at the end of last year.

To reduce that dependence, Abimapi continues to run Amazing Foods Brazil, a project developed in partnership with ApexBrasil, the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency. In 2026, Brazil has already exported panettone to 33 countries.

Japan was the second-largest destination, with $800,000 in sales and 200 metric tons shipped, followed by Venezuela and Mexico, which were tied among the next most relevant markets.

Iglesias said the figures point to the industry’s diversification strategy.

“Diversification is an indispensable path. Strong growth in consolidated markets such as Japan, robust progress in Peru and entry into alternative markets show that Brazil’s seasonal portfolio is gaining global traction and reducing dependence on a single trade partner,” he said.

He expects total Brazilian panettone exports to rise by about 5% in 2026 compared with 2025.

Filled panettone led volume growth, up 4.5%, mainly in São Paulo and in Brazil’s North, Northeast and South regions. The Super Tier segment, made up of products priced more than 140% above the market average, contributed 0.4% to volume growth, led by flavors such as truffle, dulce de leche and hazelnut.

Larger packages gain shelf space

On store shelves, traditional 400-gram packages still account for 64.2% of category sales volume. Larger formats, however, have gained ground. Panettones between 601 grams and 1 kilogram reached an 18.5% share of national consumption and contributed 2% in volume.

According to the survey, consumers over 50 lead category consumption, accounting for 41.7% of volume. Households with three to four people represent 49.2% of purchases.

So-called “Panettone Lovers,” who represent 20% of buyers, account for 48% of all volume consumed and usually begin shopping as early as October and November.

The latest figures show that Brazilian panettone exports remain highly exposed to the U.S. market, but also point to growing room for diversification as the seasonal Brazilian product gains traction in other destinations.

Source: Times Brasil

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