Brazil’s coffee exports to the U.S. plunge 47% after 50% tariff hike, says Cecafé

The imposition of a 50% surcharge by the United States on Brazilian coffee — which contributed to a 33% rise in the international price of the bean in August — has caused Brazil’s exports to the U.S. market to plummet. According to preliminary data from the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), between August 1 and 25, Brazil exported 193,900 bags of coffee to the U.S., 46.6% less than in the same period of 2024.

Eduardo Heron, Cecafé’s technical director, stated that the drop in shipments was due not only to the tariff hike but also to lower coffee production compared to 2024. Additionally, he noted that logistical bottlenecks also hindered exports.

“In July, exports were around 450,000 bags. Compared with this month [August], there was a sharp drop in shipments, due to the smaller crop and the tariff hike,” Heron said.

He added that despite the tariff increase, “there is no scenario of reduced consumption” in the U.S. “The surcharge ends up pushing prices higher, and it’s the American consumer who foots the bill,” he said.

Since the measure took effect, “some isolated contracts” have been postponed, Heron noted. The most significant impact, he said, should be seen from September onward, when larger volumes of the new crop begin shipping.

Exports of coffee to the U.S. have not entirely stopped because part of the crop had already been sold under forward contracts, according to Cecafé.

Check below a history of Brazilian green coffee exports to the United States starting from January 2022. The chart was prepared with DataLiner data:

Brazilian Green Coffee Exports to the United States | Jan 2022 to Jun 2025 | TEU

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

Forward contracts

That was the case for the Coffee Growers and Ranchers Cooperative (Cocapec) in Franca (SP) in the Alta Mogiana region. Ricardo Ravagnani, Cocapec’s business manager, said the cooperative exports about 20% of the coffee it receives from producers to the United States, and part of this year’s crop had already been contracted in advance for delivery during the second half of the year.

“Those with forward contracts for delivery in September or October are keeping shipments. No buyer has signaled cancellations. On the demand side, we’re not seeing a pullback. What we do see is that traders and spot buyers are stepping back a bit and waiting to see whether the tariffs change or not,” Ravagnani said.

Cocapec expects to receive 1.2 million bags of coffee this year, surpassing the 1.1 million bags received in 2024. Ravagnani said the initial forecast was 1.4 million, but production will be lower due to weather problems in Alta Mogiana.

For him, since global supply is balanced with demand and the U.S. market is highly dependent on Brazilian coffee, it is unlikely that the U.S. will stop importing the bean.

Annual decline

The Regional Coffee Growers Cooperative of Guaxupé (Cooxupé) is also still shipping coffee to the U.S. under contracts signed up to July. From August onward, however, no new deals have been made. “Importers are waiting to make new purchases. This scenario suggests that, with the tariff impasse, the volume exported to the U.S. this year will decline compared with recent years, given all this unpredictability,” said Luiz Fernando dos Reis, Cooxupé’s commercial superintendent.

According to Reis, given the tight global balance of supply and demand, much of Brazil’s coffee has already been sold. But the concern is medium- to long-term. “In a scenario of greater supply, U.S. importers will look for coffee from other origins, at lower cost than Brazilian coffee,” he said.

Another challenge is that opening new markets is not easy, since Brazil already exports to 116 countries in 2024 and accounts for 40% of global coffee production. The U.S. is Brazil’s main client, accounting for 23% of exports last year. “Shifting large volumes away from the world’s top coffee consumer is not easy. Some emerging countries are increasing consumption, but they are not yet able to absorb all the volume that would go to the U.S.,” Reis noted.

In this uncertain scenario, Cecafé continues talks with the National Coffee Association (NCA) in the United States to seek a solution, Heron said.

Although relations with the Trump administration are complex, the entity advocates dialogue. However, on Friday, it issued a note expressing concern over the Brazilian government’s decision to proceed with the steps necessary to implement the Economic Reciprocity Law against the U.S.

According to Cecafé, the measure could harm the sector’s negotiations with U.S. authorities this week in Washington. The Cecafé delegation’s agenda includes meetings with advocacy firms, the NCA, coffee industry representatives, the State Department, a Brazil-U.S. Chamber of Commerce event, and a public hearing on the tax.

Source: Globo Rural

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