Brazil’s machinery sector rebounds in September 2025

The Brazilian machinery and equipment industry showed signs of recovery in September 2025, after a 5.1% decline in August. Net sales revenue reached R$ 27.2 billion, an increase of 11.2% compared to the same month in 2024. In the accumulated total for the year (January to September), the sector recorded growth of 10.8%, practically stable compared to the 10.7% reported through August.

In the domestic market, sales totaled R$20 billion, up 18.2% over September/24 and 1.4% compared to August 2025, exceeding expectations despite a scenario affected by contractionary monetary policy, with the benchmark interest rate at 15% per year, the highest level since July 2006.

Apparent consumption and the domestic market show dynamism

Apparent national consumption of machinery and equipment totaled R$35.6 billion in September, an increase of 9.6% compared to September 2024 and 3.7% compared to August 2025 (10.6% with seasonal adjustment). The result partially offset losses from the previous month (-14.9%), driven by an increase in acquisitions of locally produced goods.

Foreign trade shows mixed performance

Exports totaled USD 1.325 billion, an increase of 5.1% compared to August and 1.8% compared to September 2024. In the accumulated total for 2025, exports remained at a similar level to 2024, despite declines in international prices (-2.2%) and in purchases by the United States (-8.2%). The increase in physical volume (+2.8%) and growth in sales to South America (+18.5%) partially offset losses in the U.S. market.

Among the segments, exports to the U.S. fell in components (-28.9%), agricultural machinery (-20.6%), processing machinery (-18.5%), and infrastructure machinery (-14.8%). The only group that showed growth was construction equipment (+5.4%).

Imports reached USD 2.783 billion, an increase of 8.1% compared to August and 8.4% over September 2024, with higher imported physical volume (+11.9%) favored by a 3% average price drop. In the accumulated total for the year, imports reached USD 23.97 billion, the highest value since 1999. As a result, the trade deficit reached USD 14.3 billion, 15.8% higher than in 2024.

Installed capacity, order backlog and workforce

The level of installed capacity utilization reached 79.1% in September, 0.1 percentage point higher than August and 2.4 p.p. above September 2024.

The order backlog stabilized at 8.9 weeks of demand, after a 1.9% decline in August, but sectors such as logistics machinery, construction, and capital goods components showed deterioration. Overall, the backlog remains 2.6% below 2024.

The sector recorded a 0.3% decrease in the number of employees in September, mainly in metal processing machinery and agricultural machinery, both with a reduction of approximately 1% compared to August.

Outlook and revised projections for 2025

After strong expansion in the first half (+15.1%), growth in the sector lost momentum in the third quarter due to contractionary monetary policy. In the domestic market, sectors less sensitive to interest rates, such as extractive industry and infrastructure, partially mitigated the impacts on productive investments.

In the foreign market, the effects of the additional 40% tariffs imposed by the U.S. were smaller than expected, allowing an upward revision of export and total revenue forecasts for the sector.

• Export revenue: revised projection from -15.1% to -4.2%, considering a 24.4% drop in the U.S. in the fourth quarter.
• Domestic market revenue: growth maintained at 11.9%.
• Total sector revenue: annual estimate revised from 5% to 7.6%, reflecting a less negative export performance.

Source: Portal do Agronegócio

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