Brazil’s sugar cane crop seen rising 5.3% to 709 million tonnes in 2026/27

Brazil’s National Supply Company, or Conab, on Tuesday (April 28) released its first sugar cane survey for the 2026/27 crop year, estimating production at 709.1 million tonnes, up 5.3% from the 2025/26 season. If confirmed, it would be the second-largest crop in the state agency’s historical series, behind only 2023/24.

According to Conab, the outlook for higher production is supported by improved yields and expectations of a larger harvested area in the upcoming season.

Weather conditions observed in 2025 are expected to have a positive effect on this crop and contribute to a 3.4% increase in average national yield, to 77.753 tonnes per hectare.

The harvested area is also expected to grow 1.9%, Conab said, reaching 9.1 million hectares. If confirmed, that would be the largest harvested area in the agency’s historical series.

For the Southeast, Brazil’s main sugar cane-producing region, Conab estimates output at 459.1 million tonnes, 6.8% above the 2025/26 crop. The agency projects a 2.1% increase in harvested area in the region, to 5.7 million hectares, and an average yield of 80.852 tonnes per hectare, 4.6% above the previous crop, reflecting better weather conditions than in the last season.

In the Center-West, the country’s second-largest producing region, harvested area is expected to rise 1.8% to 2 million hectares. Average yield in the region is also expected to increase 1%, reaching 77.595 tonnes per hectare, according to Conab. As a result, regional production was projected at 154.5 million tonnes of sugar cane.

The company also expects both harvested area and average field productivity to rise in the Northeast in 2026/27, to 901,300 hectares and 61.248 tonnes per hectare, respectively. Production in the region is estimated at 55.2 million tonnes, up 3.7% from the previous cycle.

For the South of the country, Conab forecasts a harvest of 36.2 million tonnes, an increase of 0.6% from 2025/26. Only in the North is there an expectation of a slight 0.5% reduction in harvested area, to 52,700 hectares. That decline is expected to be offset by an average yield 10.2% higher, projected at 78.763 tonnes per hectare, resulting in sugar cane production of 4.2 million tonnes, up 9.7% from the 2025/26 cycle.

Source: Globo Rural

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