Chicken Export Ban Could Cost Brazil USD 150 Million

As of Friday, May 25, the 23 markets suspended imports of Brazilian chicken due to an avian flu outbreak in Rio Grande do Sul, which accounted for 45% of Brazil’s chicken exports in April. These destinations imported 212,000 tonnes out of the 462,900 tons shipped last month, according to Agrostat, the Ministry of Agriculture’s data platform. In terms of revenue, these imports amounted to USD 413.9 million of the USD 906.1 million exported by Brazilian meatpackers in the period.

However, industry and government sources believe the impact on exports from May onward will be less severe despite the virus’s detection in a commercial farm and the resulting export suspension.

According to people familiar with the matter, companies have taken measures to store production during the export suspension and redirect shipments to markets with more flexible restrictions, which could help cushion the blow to foreign sales. Meanwhile, both the government and the industry expect a gradual easing of trade barriers starting this week, which would further help maintain export flows.

In 2024, a case of Newcastle disease in Anta Gorda (RS) also prompted temporary export bans. Exports dropped by around 18%, but the impact was short-lived. Despite the detection in mid-July, shipments reached 451,300 tons, 25,000 more than in June.

In August, exports fell to 369,300 tonnes, and revenue dropped by nearly USD 100 million. By September, however, the flow normalized: 471,900 tonnes were exported, generating over USD 935 million. Volumes remained close to 450,000 tonnes per month through December 2024.

As sanitary protocols and trade restrictions follow similar criteria for avian influenza, this pattern may be expected to repeat. If so, Brazil could lose 83,000 tonnes of chicken exports in a month, with a revenue loss of about USD 150 million.

“We’re working with a similar scenario. Even though current restrictions affect 45% of our exports, we anticipate a smaller actual impact considering business measures like stockpiling, alternative markets, and ongoing relaxation of restrictions,” said a government source.

Below is a historical overview of chicken meat exports from Brazil. The chart was prepared using DataLiner data:

Chicken Meat | Brazil | Jan 2022 – Mar 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

In Brasília, the overall assessment is that the impact on Brazil’s poultry industry will be moderate. Roughly 30% of domestic chicken production is exported, with 70% consumed internally, averaging nearly 50 kg per capita per year. Based on these figures, the government estimates that the suspended markets—accounting for 210,800 tonnes—represent around 14% of Brazil’s total production.

To assist logistics, the Ministry of Agriculture has authorized refrigerated containers for on-site storage of finished chicken products and transport between ministry-inspected facilities or commercial warehouses. This can now be done using simplified documentation instead of the standard sanitary certificates issued by federal inspectors.

Countries that have suspended imports from Brazil include China, the European Union, Mexico, Iraq, South Korea, Chile, the Philippines, South Africa, Jordan, Peru, Canada, Dominican Republic, Uruguay, Malaysia, Argentina, Timor-Leste, Morocco, Bolivia, Namibia, Albania, India, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan. The latter two imported Brazilian chicken in April 2025.

Source: Globo Rural

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