China extends beef import probe, easing pressure on Brazil exporters

China has decided to extend the investigation into beef imports for three months, which could result in the application of safeguard measures against Brazil — the largest exporter of beef to China — and other countries. The decision, which was expected in August, will now be announced in November.

According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, the extension is due to the “complexity of the case.” The new deadline for a decision is November 26.

The investigation was launched in December last year at the request of Chinese cattle ranchers and the domestic industry, who claim that rising imports of the protein over the past five years have harmed local production.

Amid trade tensions with the United States — which recently imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian beef exports and other products — the extension of the Chinese investigation was welcomed by representatives of Brazil’s beef sector. One industry leader said the postponement lifts pressure off Brazil during a difficult moment.

“The delay in the decision comes at a good time, given the current context of beef exports. We will continue working to clarify the situation as best as possible with the Chinese authorities,” said Luis Rua, Secretary of Trade and International Relations at Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture, in a statement to Valor.

Although the Chinese investigation is not focused solely on Brazil, it could result in the imposition of quotas or tariffs on Brazilian beef imports if Beijing proves that rising imports have harmed its domestic market. The probe covers shipments made between 2019 and 2024.

China consumes about 12 million tonnes of beef per year, of which 2.5 million tonnes are imported from various countries. Brazil is the largest supplier.

Brazilian Beef Exports to China | Jan 2022 to May 2025 | TEU

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Brazil shipped 1.3 million tonnes of beef to China in 2024 — roughly 10% of total Chinese consumption. In the first half of 2025, Brazilian meatpackers exported 641,100 tonnes to the Asian country, a 13.4% increase compared to the same period last year, according to the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries (Abiec).

Revenue from these shipments reached US$3.2 billion in the first six months of 2025, representing a 28.2% increase over the same period in 2024.

Brazil’s legal defense in the Chinese investigation emphasized that the country’s exports complement China’s beef industry. Most of the Brazilian beef goes to Chinese companies for processing. The core argument is that Brazilian beef does not compete with or displace domestic Chinese production.

Abiec, which represents Brazil’s beef exporters, has not yet commented.

Measure is allowed under WTO rules

Former Foreign Trade Secretary Welber Barral stated that China’s extension of the beef import investigation is in line with the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) safeguard agreement. Barral, who is involved in the legal defense of Brazil’s exporters, noted that there were already indications the deadline would be extended due to the complexity of the case.

“Indeed, the process is very complex. Although Brazil accounts for half of China’s beef imports, the investigation also involves other major players like the U.S., Europe, and Argentina. It’s a heavy workload,” he said. Barral is the founding partner of BMJ Consultores Associados.

Ultimately, the investigation could lead to quotas or tariffs if China proves that foreign beef has caused damage to its domestic industry.

A source familiar with the matter described the extension as a “relief” for Brazil, which is also trying to get its beef excluded from the U.S. tariff list. “If China had imposed additional tariffs, it would have created pressure on exports to two major markets. The extension keeps the Chinese market stable for now,” the source said on condition of anonymity.

Safeguard measures are supported by Chinese cattle ranchers and industry players. The matter directly concerns the country’s Ministry of Agriculture, though the Ministry of Commerce — which is leading the investigation — has shown resistance, according to one source. Ongoing negotiations between China and the U.S. are also influencing the situation.

Source: Globo Rural

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