DataLiner: Container exports dip slightly while imports surge in Brazil’s H1 2025 trade

Brazil’s containerized foreign trade in the first half of 2025 was shaped by the combined impact of global trade tensions, regulatory uncertainty, and volatility in maritime freight costs. According to data from Datamar’s Business Intelligence team, containerized exports fell 0.4% between January and June compared to the same period in 2024, as external factors began to reshape shipping routes and the strategic decisions of Brazilian companies.

Part of this result was driven by a slowdown in Chinese demand for key products, helping explain the 15.8% drop in shipments to the country. At the same time, China’s extension of its safeguard investigation on Brazilian beef through November has left meatpackers and trading companies in a holding pattern, delaying logistics decisions.

In the United States—Brazil’s second-largest destination for containerized cargo—the first half did not yet reflect the impact of the new tariffs announced by President Donald Trump, but companies have already begun evaluating alternative markets for products that will be subject to surcharges starting in the second half, particularly fruit and derivatives. Still, shipments to the U.S. rose 3.9% during the period.

India emerged as a standout destination, with a 21.7% increase in imports from Brazil. The growth is attributed to both Brazil’s geographic diversification efforts and India’s rising demand for commodities and industrial inputs.

By product category, meat led Brazilian shipments for the semester (+1.5%), supported by long-term contracts and steady demand in traditional markets. Wood (–7.5%) and cotton (–2.3%) were affected by lower international prices and a less favorable global environment for semi-manufactured goods and non-food raw materials.

In maritime transport, the semester was marked by freight cost instability: after a relatively stable start to the year, the race to ship goods ahead of tariff changes temporarily drove up spot rates on Asian routes. Starting in June, however, prices began to fall, reflecting greater available capacity and route adjustments by shipping lines.

See the chart below for a comparison of Brazilian container exports for the first half of each year since 2022. The chart was prepared using DataLiner data:

Brazilian Container Exports | Jan–June 2022–2025 | TEU

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

On the import side, Brazil recorded a significant 10.2% increase in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year. The growth was driven mainly by reactors, boilers, and machinery, which rose 41.5%, indicating both investment in industrial capacity and replenishment of key equipment and components. Plastics also rose (+2.8%), reflecting demand from the manufacturing sector.

China remained the top source of Brazilian imports, with a 14% increase in volume, reinforcing Brazil’s structural dependence on the Asian giant for industrial inputs and intermediate goods. The United States, by contrast, posted a slight decline (–1.3%), influenced by inventory restocking earlier in the year and a shift toward alternative suppliers in Asian markets.

See the chart below for a comparison of Brazilian container imports for the first half of each year since 2022. The chart was prepared using DataLiner data:

Brazilian Container Imports | Jan–June 2022–2025 | TEU

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

Plate region
Intra-regional trade also showed strong momentum. In the Plate region—which includes Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay—combined imports rose 38.2% in the first half, driven by increased demand from Brazil and greater logistical competitiveness on short-haul routes. Exports from those countries via container rose 1.7% over the period, though they declined 1.4% in June, reflecting both seasonal shipping patterns and the impact of global trade uncertainty.

Experts assess that the first-half results reveal a mix of resilience and latent risks. On the one hand, Brazil maintained import growth and expanded its exports to emerging markets, such as India. On the other hand, declining shipments to China and negative prospects for U.S.-bound cargo in the second half—due to the start of new tariffs—underscore the urgent need for diversification and rapid adjustments in trade and logistics strategies.

Outlook for the second half
The second half of 2025 begins under the influence of a more adverse international environment for Brazil’s containerized trade. The imposition of tariffs of up to 50% by the United States on sensitive goods such as fruit and juices is expected to reduce Brazil’s competitiveness in one of its key markets and shorten commercial windows. Some of these shipments will likely be redirected to markets such as India, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia—but with tighter margins and higher logistics costs.

In China, the extension of the safeguard investigation on beef has postponed an immediate shock but keeps the sector on alert through November. This uncertainty is affecting contract negotiations and logistical planning in the agribusiness sector, particularly in the lead-up to the year-end export peak.

On the import side, growth observed in the first half is expected to continue, but at a more moderate pace. Capital goods, such as machinery and reactors, will continue to drive industrial recovery; however, companies may curb their purchases in light of exchange rate volatility and global uncertainty.

International logistics is also undergoing a period of adjustment. After a spike in spot freight rates on Asia–U.S. routes in June, prices began to fall due to increased available capacity and route realignment in response to the new tariff landscape. Despite this temporary relief, the environment remains volatile, requiring exporters and importers to adopt freight hedging strategies and more flexible contracts to mitigate risks.

In the Plate region, imports from Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay were strong through June but may moderate in the second half due to route changes and the indirect effects of U.S. measures on supply chains integrated with Brazil.

The prevailing view is that 2025 will be marked by a convergence of trade policy and logistics shocks. In this context, market diversification and active freight management are no longer competitive advantages—they are essential requirements for preserving volumes and margins in Brazilian exports and imports.

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