DataLiner data: Brazilian foreign trade gains momentum in March amid global tensions and expectations over the Mercosur-European Union agreement

Datamar Business Intelligence data show that Brazil’s container exports edged up 0.2% in the first quarter from a year earlier, with a stronger March performance pointing to firmer momentum at the end of the period. Shipments in March alone rose 9.8% year on year.

The chart below shows Brazilian container exports over the past three years. The chart was prepared using DataLiner data:

Brazil Container Exports | Jan 2023 to March 2026 | TEU

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Meat remains Brazil’s leading export commodity in 2026, with volume 6.7% higher than in the first quarter of 2025, followed by wood, down 7.8%, and cotton, up 8.4%. Pulp exports also posted positive performance, with shipments 14.6% higher in the cumulative period from January to March 2026.

China remains Brazil’s main trading partner in container exports in the first quarter, with volume 18.3% above the level recorded in the same months of 2025. Shipments to the United States continue to show a sharp decline of 31.8%. Exports to Mexico rose 7.4%, to the Netherlands 18%, and to India 38.2%.

That movement partly reflects the recent reconfiguration of global trade. The entry into force of the Mercosur-European Union agreement, scheduled for May, does not yet directly affect the data observed through March, but it is already shaping expectations and commercial decisions. The prospect of tariff reductions and greater integration with the European market tends to gradually stimulate Brazilian shipments over the coming months, which may help explain, at least in part, the positive performance in European destinations such as the Netherlands.

The sharp decline in flows with the United States, in both exports and imports, may be linked to the continuation of more protectionist trade policies and to the reorganization of global supply chains, with greater diversification of partners, especially in Asia.

Brazilian container imports showed more consistent growth in the period spanning from January through March, rising 2.3% from the same period a year earlier. Comparing March 2026 with March 2025, growth was even stronger at 15.9%.

See below for the track record of Brazilian container imports since January 2023. The chart was prepared using DataLiner data:

Brazil Container Imports | Jan 2023 to March 2026 | TEU

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Between January and March 2026, the most imported commodity into Brazil by container was plastics, with volume 5% above the same period last year, followed by reactors, boilers and machinery, down 6.9%, auto parts, up 22%, electrical equipment, down 20.9%, and textiles, up 5.8%.

China remains Brazil’s main trading partner in container imports, with a 12.1% increase in the volume shipped to the country. By contrast, receipts from the United States fell 32.6% in the same comparison. India, Brazil’s third-largest partner, increased its shipments by 4.4%, while Vietnam stood out with strong growth of 62.4%.

This rise in Asian imports is also tied to the reorganization of global supply chains and the search for more competitive suppliers in a context of trade tensions involving the United States. In addition, the international geopolitical backdrop continues to exert significant influence. The intensification of tensions in the Middle East, especially after the start of the conflict involving the United States and Iran, has increased volatility in global logistics costs. Although Brazil is not directly affected on those routes, there are important indirect effects, including higher marine fuel prices, insurance premiums and risks linked to bottlenecks on strategic routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, factors that ultimately put pressure on the entire international transport chain.

Freight rates

Freight rates on the East Coast South America (ECSA), route showed strong appreciation in the week ended May 1, driven mainly by aggressive capacity cuts by shipping lines through blank sailings and the resulting reduction in available vessel space. This tightening in supply created greater urgency in bookings and increased the volume of rolled cargo, especially on routes from North Asia.

As a result, rates rose significantly, particularly on the Asia-ECSA corridor, which recorded an increase of about $600 per FEU, reaching $2,900 per FEU. Market sentiment remains bullish, with expectations that this scenario will persist in the short term, especially given the approach of peak season and possible additional pressure on space, such as rising exports of vehicles and electric equipment.

This behavior in freight rates is also part of a broader global context in which shipping lines have been adjusting supply to sustain prices amid still uneven demand on some routes. At the same time, external factors, such as tensions in the Middle East and volatility in fuel costs, continue to add pressure to ocean freight rates, including in markets such as South America.

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