Global fish market expands as Brazil frets over imports

Global fish production and trade are set to keep expanding as changing diets boost consumption and aquaculture takes a growing share of supply, according to a report the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) released last week.

For Brazil, the outlook brings both opportunities and concerns. Domestic producers are seeking greater access to major export markets while warning that rising imports of species already produced locally could hurt the industry. Meanwhile, China’s dominance stands out: by some measures, the country accounts for nearly half of global fishing activity.

According to FAO, global fisheries and aquaculture production reached a record 235 million metric tonnes in 2024, driven by aquaculture. The agency projects global per capita availability will rise from 21.3 kilograms in 2024 to 21.9 kilograms in 2034.

Fish and seafood account for 15% of global meat availability and are the main source of animal protein for more than 40% of the world’s population. In 2024, aquaculture overtook wild-catch fisheries for the first time, accounting for 53% of global production.

That shift is expected to continue. FAO projects aquaculture will account for 62% of fish available for human consumption by 2034.

China is also the world’s largest fishing nation by catch volume, aided by agreements with dozens of countries. With its coastal waters depleted, China has built fishing operations worldwide, deploying nearly 3,000 vessels from the Indian Ocean to the South Pacific and from the African coast to South America, according to civil society organizations.

Oceana, a U.S.-based nonprofit focused on ocean conservation, estimates that Chinese vessels may have accounted for 44% of global fishing activity in some years. The organization says they have operated in the waters of more than 90 countries through agreements. Some analysts say weak enforcement in certain countries may also leave room for fishing beyond what agreements formally allow.

China occupies a unique position: it is the world’s largest exporter, accounting for 11% of export revenue, and the second-largest importer, with 12% of global spending. For exporting countries such as Brazil, China is both a competitor and a customer.

The Brazilian Association of Seafood Processors (Abipesca) says Brazil imports 30% of the fish and seafood it consumes, including salmon and cod, which it does not produce domestically. The concern, according to the association’s executive director, Jairo Gund, is imports of species already produced in Brazil.

A recent Datamar overview shows that Brazil’s frozen fish imports totaled 948 TEUs in the first seven months of 2026. See the monthly breakdown below:

Frozen Fish Imports | Jan 2023 – Jul 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

With the European Union market still closed to Brazilian fish and seafood and the industry having recently secured an exemption in the United States, producers say they are “under threat from imports of products that hurt the domestic supply chain, such as tilapia from Vietnam.”

In the first six months of this year, Brazilian imports of tilapia from Vietnam exceeded the country’s tilapia exports. Chinese tilapia could also soon enter the Brazilian market once sanitary protocols currently under negotiation are completed.

“We’re at a moment of considerable concern, and protecting domestic production is important, including through the possibility of import quotas,” Gund said. “We don’t want to create trade friction. What we want is imports to take place in a controlled way so they don’t undermine the domestic industry.”

Brazil recently reached an agreement to export wild-caught fish to China. Gund said that if the European market were reopened, Brazil could, for example, nearly triple its shrimp production within three to five years.

Source: Valor International