Global trade loses momentum at the end of 2025, says WTO

After a substantial expansion in international exchanges at the start of the year, global merchandise trade is showing clear signs of deceleration in the second half of 2025. The assessment comes from the World Trade Organization (WTO), which released last Friday (November 28) the latest reading of its Goods Trade Barometer, an indicator that monitors real-time trade trends.

According to the organization, the surge seen in the first months of the year was driven by the advance purchase of imports amid possible tariff increases and by rising demand for products linked to artificial intelligence. As these factors cool, international trade growth tends to be more moderate toward the end of the year.

The barometer index fell from 103.5 in June to 101.8 in September, remaining above the 100-point trend line but clearly showing a loss of momentum. Since the indicator usually leads actual trade movements by two to three months, the expectation is that global trade volumes will continue to grow, but at a slower pace in the fourth quarter.

Among the components, only the agricultural raw materials subindex was below trend, at 98 points, signaling prolonged contraction. Air transport (102.7) and maritime transport (101.7) indicators also declined, reflecting lower logistical dynamism. The automotive (103.0) and electronics (102.0) segments remained virtually stable.

The new export orders index, at 102.3, remained above the baseline, indicating continued growth in global export sales.

Outlook

The WTO notes that global goods trade grew 4.9% in the first half of the year, exceeding initial forecasts. Still, the organization warns that the environment of high tariffs and trade policy uncertainty may constrain momentum through the rest of the year.

The most recent 2025 projection, released on October 7, points to 2.4% growth in global trade. This result, however, could be stronger if demand for AI-related products remains strong.

Source: Portal In

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