Guinea replaces Brazil on the cape podium

The extraordinary growth of the bauxite capesize trades out of Guinea has seen the route replace Brazil in terms of ton-days in the opening four months of the year, new data from broker BRS shows.

The Guinea to China bauxite trade route has now firmly entrenched itself as a “pivotal pillar” of capesize prospects, analysts at BRS noted, the growth in imports mirroring the People’s Republic’s remarkable ramp-up in electric vehicle output.

In the first four months of 2024, capesize shipments ex-Guinea to China stood at 333m tonnes, just 0.6m tonnes shy of the established fronthaul C14, Brazil to China route. More pertinently, when it comes to ton-days, the route has ousted the Brazil fronthaul route by 18.2%.

Chinese customs data shows that in April, China’s bauxite imports from Guinea, vital for the making of aluminum, stood at 10.5m tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 183%.

Bauxite, the only minor bulk cargo traded primarily on capes, represents roughly 13% of global cape volumes, up from 10% last year and 5% in 2020, according to analysis from Jefferies, an investment bank.

Guinea’s meteoric rise as a generator of bauxite for the Chinese market is set to be accompanied by its establishment as a major iron ore supplier for China in the coming years with the much hyped opening next year of the Simandou iron ore mine.

Source: Splash247

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