Iran’s corn buying capacity, a leading factor in 2025, worries the sector

The course of the war in the Middle East remains a major concern for Brazil’s corn sector. The current fragile ceasefire has not yet restored confidence in the outlook for national exports, for which that market remains highly important. The main focus is Iran, which last year accounted for 22% of all corn exported by Brazil.

Middle Eastern countries bought 12.9 million tonnes of Brazilian corn in 2025, with 10.1 million tonnes shipped in the second half alone. In August and September, the peak shipping months, exports reached 3.5 million tonnes, equivalent to 35% of the July-to-December volume. Iran accounted for 9.1 million tonnes, followed by Saudi Arabia with 1.7 million tonnes and Iraq with 668,000 tonnes.

Data from Datamar’s DataLiner platform confirm that Iran was the leading destination for Brazilian corn in 2025. Between January and November 2025, approximately 6,298,845 tonnes were shipped in vessel holds to the Persian country. That volume accounted for about 20% of Brazil’s total corn exports.

Below is a month-by-month comparison of Brazilian corn exports to Iran based on data provided by Datamar.

Corn Exports to Iran | 2022–2025 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Brazil is expected to produce 132 million tonnes of corn this year, with 43 million tonnes projected for export if the winter crop, which is still under development, performs well. According to AgRural, second-crop corn areas in Paraná remain on alert because of low moisture levels. The biggest concern is in the western part of the state, where many fields are already in the reproductive stage. Last week, AgRural had already highlighted concerns among producers in northern Paraná, southern Mato Grosso do Sul and southern São Paulo state.

Iran’s purchasing potential is unlikely to be the same this year because of the damage the war has inflicted on the country’s economy. With weaker buying power from Iran, Brazil is expected to compete more directly for markets with the United States, which harvested a bumper 432 million-tonne crop in the 2025/26 season and is expected to export 84 million tonnes by Aug. 31, the end of the U.S. marketing year. That would be 15.5% above the previous period. The crop now being planted in the United States will be marketed in the 2026/27 season.

In addition to a stronger U.S. presence in the market, Argentina is expected to raise exports by 28%, while Ukraine is projected to increase shipments by 10%. One supportive factor is that Chinese imports are rising to 8 million tonnes. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected global corn production at 1.3 billion tonnes on Thursday (April 9), with consumption at the same level.

Beyond Iran, Egypt, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, China, Morocco and Algeria are among the leading buyers of Brazilian corn.

Source: Folha de S. Paulo

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