Maritime Sector Rethinks Course Amid Tariffs and Geopolitical Tensions

The global maritime industry and its connected supply chain are grappling with the effects of international geopolitical tensions and the trade tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. These issues were central to the discussions at one of the sector’s leading trade fairs in Europe, Nor-Shipping, held every two years in Oslo and Lillestrøm, Norway, and concluded this Friday (June 6).

Representatives from companies based in the Americas, Europe, and Asia expressed concern over the impact of the White House’s tariff policies on business development. They emphasized the importance of expanding trade partnerships in this context. The maritime sector is responsible for 80% of global trade, and the protectionist measures from the U.S. government could impact transoceanic transport, driving down trade prices and increasing pressure on freight rates.

In Norway, a country with a long history of support for Brazil’s offshore industry, shipowners have begun to revise their forecasts for the coming years due to growing uncertainty sparked by the tariffs announced by the U.S. since Trump took office. “We have not yet seen major effects from the geopolitical situation, but uncertainty has gripped our industry,” said Knut Arild Hareide, executive director of the Norwegian Shipowners’ Association (NSA), to Valor.

In April, the Trump administration decided to scale back port fees that were to be applied to ships built in China, following strong backlash from the maritime industry. According to Hareide, around 45% of vessels operated by Norwegian companies are built in China. Even with the softening of Trump’s original proposal — which would have imposed tariffs of up to US$1.5 million per port call — the scenario remains challenging for shipowners.

“In January, we asked our members how many ships they planned to build over the next five years, and they said 250. If I ask them today, that number will be lower due to market uncertainties,” said Hareide, who previously served as director general of maritime transport and navigation at the Norwegian Maritime Authority (NMA).

In Brazil, approximately 95% of trade transactions are conducted via maritime routes, according to the National Secretariat for Waterways and Navigation. Signals coming from the White House are being closely monitored, particularly by companies engaged in long-haul shipping. In the offshore support segment, which represents a significant portion of the Brazilian market, the effects of U.S. tariffs are compounded by the impact of ongoing wars, as both influence oil prices.

“Even if we’re not seeing short- or medium-term impacts for companies operating in Brazil, the long-term effects are certainly on our radar,” said Dino Batista, the national secretary for waterways and navigation, who represented Brazil’s Ministry of Ports and Airports in Norway. “These back-and-forth decisions make it very difficult for companies to plan. There’s a clear sense of concern, as these choices ultimately affect new routes and new investments.”

Throughout the week, executives also drew attention to the potential impact of U.S. decisions on the pace of maritime fleet decarbonization. Trump has been a vocal critic of multilateralism and aims to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, as he did during his first term (2017–2021). The topic is especially pressing as the maritime sector seeks ways to accelerate decarbonization efforts to meet the demands of the International Maritime Organization (IMO).

In April, the IMO approved a framework for emission pricing in shipping. The rules are expected to be formally adopted in October of this year and will come into force starting in 2027.

Jan Dieleman, president of Cargill Ocean Transportation, expressed the strongest concern regarding the direction of energy transition investments. “What’s different this time isn’t just the disruptions themselves — it’s the basis of the disruption and its magnitude. The industry is struggling, and decision-making has come to a bit of a standstill,” Dieleman said during Nor-Shipping’s opening conference on Tuesday (June 3).

Harald Serck-Hanssen, vice president of DNB, Norway’s largest financial institution, agreed that the process is slow and said there are more bottlenecks than previously expected. DNB is one of the world’s leading banks in terms of structuring financing for the maritime industry. Its clients include shipping companies, oil firms, and equipment manufacturers in the oil and gas industry.

Serck-Hanssen noted that these issues should be temporary: “Digitalization and the internet didn’t stop with the dot-com crisis in 1999,” he argued. The DNB executive also said that financing for renewable energy projects is growing worldwide and is expected to continue rising due to economic factors. “These projects used to be driven by what you call ‘greenwashing.’ Today, they’re powered by the fact that solar and wind energy have become cheaper than coal in most countries and U.S. states. So it makes commercial sense,” he said.

John Kerry, former U.S. Secretary of State and special presidential envoy for climate during the Biden administration said the economic logic behind the energy transition remains intact. He closed the opening session of Nor-Shipping on Tuesday, just as he did at the 2023 edition. “I want to emphasize as strongly as possible that while the U.S. presidency has changed, the economic rationale behind the transition has not,” he said.

Kerry also urged the maritime industry to view the energy transition as an opportunity. “Shipping has a chance to lead, to help the world embrace the full potential of this transition, and to serve as an example for the rest of the world.”

Source: Valor Econômico

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