Middle East instability could undermine food demand

The war in the Middle East is expected to weaken food demand in the region over the coming quarters, according to analysts interviewed by Valor. The decline in tourism is seen as the main reason behind this expectation.

Since the beginning of the war involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, the conflict has already affected several countries. Iran retaliated against the U.S. with attacks targeting neighboring Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, while Israel launched attacks on Lebanon.

For Brazil, which has the Middle East as its main import market for chicken meat — 29.8% of the country’s exports were shipped to the region in 2025, according to exporters’ association ABPA — the outlook is concerning. BRF and JBS, two of the country’s largest meat producers, have invested billions of dollars in countries across the region in recent years.

According to Gustavo Cruz, chief strategist at RB Investimentos, the war has weakened the thesis that the region would be one of the most promising markets for future food demand.

“Even if the war ends, the sense that the region was detached from conflict is gone. It will struggle to attract investments in the future, and the idea that it would become a major consumer market will be questioned,” he said.

Leonardo Alencar, head of agribusiness, food, and beverages at XP, also sees the decline in tourism affecting consumption.

“Demand from the local population will not weaken, because governments will do everything possible to keep supermarket shelves stocked. The problem is tourism, which in some countries is several times larger than the local population,” he said. “Dubai is a major hub, and many local office teams have been relocated. There has already been a drop in consumption, and we do not know how long it will last.”

According to the analyst, although BRF and JBS are large enough to maintain supply to the region, smaller exporters may start redirecting part of the products they normally export to the Middle East to the Brazilian market, increasing downward pressure on prices.

Source: Globo Rural

Sharing is caring!