Possible Chinese export restrictions could impact global fertilizer market

Possible Chinese export restrictions on fertilizers in the fourth quarter of 2025 could affect the global market, especially for nitrogen and phosphate products, according to a report by consulting firm StoneX.

The measure aligns with China’s historical pattern of limiting external shipments in the months leading up to the domestic planting season to prioritize local supply and control producer prices.

“Although this policy is recurring, there is rarely predictability in the Chinese government’s decisions. The lack of clarity about when restrictions will be implemented or lifted increases uncertainty and creates instability among importers, who may be forced to seek alternative suppliers when Chinese products become unavailable on the international market,” said Tomás Pernías, Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX.

China is one of the world’s leading exporters of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, particularly monoammonium phosphate (MAP). In 2024, Chinese MAP exports accounted for about 16% of global volume. Any restrictions could therefore directly affect supply to Brazil, one of the largest consumers of the product.

According to Pernías, reduced availability could intensify competition for shipments and push prices higher — a challenge for farmers already facing high production costs and unfavorable trade terms.

Below is a comparison of Brazilian fertilizer imports from January to August over the past four years. The chart was prepared using DataLiner data:

Brazilian Fertilizer Imports | January–August | 2022–2025 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

Even so, the analyst noted that the potential impact will depend on which fertilizers are affected and on demand behavior, since in Brazil, purchases typically slow in the final quarter of the year after most inputs for the summer crop have already been secured.

Source: Globo Rural

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