Tariffs, quality, and costs pressure grape exports in the first half of 2026

Brazilian grape exports closed this first half of 2026 with results below expectations. In the partial period (Jan-Jun), according to Comex Stat,  7.27 thousand tons were shipped, a decline of approximately 30% compared to the same period in 2025, with revenue of US$ 19.55 million (FOB), 30% lower in the same comparison, a scenario reflecting the productive and quality difficulties that marked this half of the year.

See below for an overview of Brazil’s containerized grape exports:

Grape Exports | Jan 2023 – May 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

The contraction in exported volume was associated with factors that overlapped throughout the semester. The main destination for Brazilian grapes was the Netherlands, which accounted for 42% of the total volume shipped, followed by the United Kingdom (23%), Argentina (16%), and Canada (8%). In the North American market, the 33% tariff imposed on imports significantly restricted shipments to the US, which accounted for only 6% of the total volume exported in the partial period, a 300% decline in shipments to the country in the comparison.

Meanwhile, shipments of Brazilian grapes destined for Europe suffered strong pressure due to quality issues in some batches. This scenario, combined with rising production costs, made the domestic market relatively more attractive than exports, leading producers to prioritize domestic sales and adopt a stance of maintaining their existing portfolio of foreign clients, with no moves to expand into new markets during the period.

For the second window, the outlook is more optimistic. The gradual improvement in weather is favoring crop management and enabling more uniform formation of pruned batches, aimed at meeting demand for the period. In addition, the agreement between Mercosur and the European Union is expected to ensure the continued entry of good volumes to supply the European market.

Industry agents, however, reported concerns about returns, which may decrease given the absence of tariffs and greater competitiveness relative to other suppliers shipping fruit under the same conditions. Added to this, the varietal renewal carried out in European producing regions is expected to increase locally marketed volumes. This trend tends to narrow the supply window and make it harder for Brazilian fruit to compete on more balanced terms in that market.

Source: HF Brasil

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