Trump tariffs reshape markets and alter Brazil’s export structure

The tariff package imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on products exported from Brazil has triggered shifts in markets and in the structure of Brazil’s export portfolio, according to the latest Foreign Trade Indicator (Icomex) report released on Tuesday (14) by the Brazilian Institute of Economics at Fundação Getulio Vargas (Ibre/FGV).

Brazilian exports of meat and coffee products have continued to offset losses in the U.S. market by increasing sales to the rest of the world. In September, certain wood and tobacco products also recorded higher exports to other global destinations.

See below a historical record of Brazilian beef exports since January 2022. The chart was prepared with data from DataLiner:

Brazilian beef exports | Jan 2022 to Aug 2025 | TEU

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

“The effects of the tariff package are causing market changes and shifts in the structure of the export portfolio. This is still a transition phase, and the scenario may change if negotiations between Brazil and the United States reach a positive outcome. In such talks, the challenge is that each party wants to show gains and/or that the concessions offered are offset by benefits. Given the asymmetry of this negotiation, the biggest challenge lies with Brazil,” the Icomex report noted.

In September 2025, Brazilian exports increased 7.2% in value compared to September 2024. In volume, the rise was 9.6%. Imports grew 17.7% in value and 16.2% in volume in the same comparison. From January to September, Brazil exported 3.5% more in volume than in the same period of the previous year, while imports increased 9.4%.

Brazil’s trade balance posted a surplus of US$3.0 billion in September. Cumulatively through the ninth month of the year, the surplus reached US$45.5 billion, US$13.2 billion below the same period in 2024.

Compared with September last year, export growth was driven by higher shipments to Argentina (+22.0%), China (+15.0%), and the European Union (+5.7%). From January to September, export volumes to Argentina surged 48.9% and to China 5.8%.

“The difference is that China accounted for 28% of Brazil’s exports, while Argentina accounted for 5.9%. The United States, with an 8.4% share in September, recorded a 19.1% monthly drop in export volume and a 0.8% decline year-to-date,” the FGV report said.

Exports to the United States, China, and the European Union accounted for 40% of Brazil’s total exports in September.

“The downward trend in exports to the United States was partially offset by the increase in exports to China,” the Icomex report highlighted.

According to the survey, the growth in export volumes to Asia (excluding China), South America (excluding Argentina), and Mexico since July “suggests gains in other markets that have compensated for losses in the United States.”

“We did not highlight Argentina because exports to that country have been growing at rates above 40% since the beginning of the year, driven by the automotive sector. In September, the lowest variation was recorded, at +22%, indicating a possible slowdown in this trend amid the country’s worsening economic conditions,” Icomex explained.

Source: Diário do Grande ABC

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