U.S. set to gain larger share of Brazilian pulp exports as China boosts self-sufficiency

Brazil’s share of the global pulp market is expected to rise 6% by 2030, reaching 34%, driven by the startup of new mills and the growing substitution of long fiber (pine) for short fiber (eucalyptus), according to Rabobank.

While China will remain the leading destination for Brazilian short-fiber pulp, the expansion of integrated production in the country is expected to reduce its import needs in the coming years. This could create room for the United States — currently the second-largest buyer — to play an even greater role in Brazil’s export portfolio.

Traditionally, Chinese producers faced high production costs and limited wood availability, which forced them to consume large volumes of market pulp. But after the country’s real estate crisis in 2021, wood previously used in construction became surplus, prompting the development of integrated pulp projects to absorb the excess supply.

Rabobank data shows that China’s integrated short-fiber pulp production jumped from 5 thousand tonnes in 2016 to 9.5 thousand in 2024. The bank projects this figure will reach 14.5 thousand tonnes by 2027 — an increase of nearly 53%.

“Until recently, no one was mapping these new projects,” said Rabobank analyst Andres Padilla. He notes that the market tends to rebalance over time, with more efficient mills displacing less competitive ones. Even so, part of the displaced demand will need a new destination, and the United States is emerging as a promising buyer of Brazilian pulp.

In 2024, Brazil accounted for 82% of U.S. short-fiber pulp imports, totaling roughly 2 million tonnes, according to the Rabobank report. That volume is 74% higher than a decade ago and reflects an average annual growth rate of 4.7%. The material is mainly used in tissue products, such as toilet paper and facial tissues.

In the long-fiber segment, used in paper packaging, the U.S. supply has historically been dominated by Canada. However, post-pandemic market changes have created new space for Brazilian and European pulp. In 2024, Brazil supplied 10% of U.S. long-fiber pulp imports — roughly 300 thousand tonnes — while Canada’s share dropped to 75%, according to the bank.

Source: Valor Econômico

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