Shipowners have already ordered more than twice as many supertankers this year as in all of 2025, in a buying spree worth more than $20 billion and the largest in at least 25 years, as the US-Iran war reshapes trade routes and boosts demand for long-haul crude shipments.
Industry data cited by Reuters show that orders for Very Large Crude Carriers, or VLCCs, have surged in 2026, with some market estimates putting the total above 200 vessels. That compares with fewer than 100 orders last year. A VLCC can carry about two million barrels of oil.
The ordering wave points to growing expectations that crude will increasingly travel longer distances from the Atlantic basin as buyers diversify away from Middle Eastern supply. It also reflects confidence among shipowners that long-haul oil trade will remain resilient despite the broader energy transition.
Shipping analysts say expectations of stronger Atlantic-to-Asia crude flows are playing a major role in renewed demand for VLCCs.
Hormuz closure reshapes global crude flows
Asian and European refiners are having to replace supplies lost after the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passed before the war between the United States and Iran.
US crude exports have reached record highs, while other Atlantic basin producers are also increasing output. Brazil, Guyana and Argentina are expected to play a growing role in that expansion.
Industry estimates suggest oil production on South America’s east coast could increase by around 2.5 million barrels per day through 2030, with much of that additional supply heading to Europe and Asia. Such flows would favor longer voyages and greater use of larger tankers.
Demand for VLCCs and smaller Suezmax tankers is also being supported by the need to shuttle crude out of the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz before transferring it to larger ships in the Gulf of Oman.
Middle Eastern producers have faced growing difficulty securing ships willing to transit the strait amid the threat of Iranian attacks, increasing pressure on national oil companies and regional operators to secure their own tonnage.
The situation has become more acute after a Saudi pipeline carrying crude west toward the Red Sea was damaged.
“Saudi Arabia will need to participate in this business to a much greater degree, at least temporarily,” Lars Barstad, CEO of tanker group Frontline, told a shipping conference in Norway.
Since the pipeline attack, tanker freight rates have climbed sharply. VLCC spot earnings recently rose above $500,000 per day, compared with about $132,000 in February, before the war, according to market data cited by Reuters.
The need to shuttle crude out of the Gulf and wait for cargo transfers is tying up vessels for longer periods, tightening effective fleet availability and adding further support to tanker demand.
Market brokers have also estimated that a 10-year-old tanker can now cost more than ordering a new vessel, underscoring the strength of demand for available tonnage.
Aging fleet adds to ordering wave
The surge in newbuilding orders is not driven solely by expectations of stronger oil flows.
Each VLCC costs roughly $130 million to build, according to industry estimates cited by Reuters, and fleet renewal has become increasingly urgent after years of limited ordering and excess capacity.
Around 20% of the global VLCC fleet is more than 20 years old, adding pressure on shipowners to replace aging vessels.
Recent contracts include ships scheduled for delivery in 2029 and 2030, suggesting owners expect strong tanker demand to extend well into the medium term.
At the same time, older VLCCs are still finding buyers instead of heading directly for demolition. Many are being absorbed into the so-called shadow fleet, used to transport sanctioned oil from countries such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela outside mainstream Western shipping and insurance systems.
The result is a tanker market being reshaped by several forces at once: geopolitical disruption in the Middle East, rising Atlantic basin crude production, longer sailing distances and an aging global fleet.
For tanker owners, the combination has created one of the strongest newbuilding cycles in decades, while for oil exporters in Brazil, Guyana and Argentina, the shift could reinforce demand for long-haul tanker capacity as South American crude takes a larger role in supplying Europe and Asia.