Wheat imports are expected to reach a record in 2026

Brazil is historically dependent on wheat imports and, this year, will need to rely even more on foreign supply. One of the main reasons is the sharp decline in domestic production. As a result, the country is expected to import the largest volume of wheat in its history, according to experts.

Consultancy Safras & Mercado estimates imports at 8.2 million tonnes in the 2026/27 cycle, surpassing the previous record of 7.1 million tonnes set in the 2006/07 season. TF Agroeconomic Consulting also projects a record volume, ranging between 6.7 million and 8 million tonnes.

According to the National Supply Company (Conab), Brazilian production is expected to drop 16% this season to 6.6 million tonnes — well below the estimated demand of 13.3 million tonnes for milling.

The combination of lower domestic supply and strong demand increases reliance on foreign wheat. “Brazil is structurally a wheat importer,” says Safras & Mercado analyst Elcio Bento. “If we produce less, we need to import more,” he adds.

The production decline is the result of factors such as adverse weather, high costs, and reduced incentives for farmers. “The agricultural sector is indebted, and wheat has lost competitiveness due to falling international prices, discouraging planting,” Bento explains.

In 2025, wheat futures on the Chicago exchange fell during much of the year. In 2026, however, there has been a recovery, with prices rising nearly 19%, according to Valor Data.

For Eduardo Bulgarelli, trading director at Bunge, the increase in imports follows market logic. “It is a natural movement, especially during the off-season, when domestic availability is more limited. Imported wheat becomes more relevant to ensure supply until the new harvest arrives,” he says.

According to him, production costs also contribute to the scenario. “Rising costs, especially for fertilizers, reduce producers’ margins and may lead to a decrease in planted area and investment in technology, affecting both volume and quality,” he notes.

The storage capacity of milling companies is limited. “Mills operate with stocks for about one month, so they need to import continuously,” explains Rubens Barbosa, president of Abitrigo.

Argentina remains the main source of Brazil’s imported wheat, favored by geographic proximity, Mercosur tax exemptions, and lower logistics costs. “It would only cease to be the main supplier in very specific situations,” Bento says.

However, in the current season, the quality of Argentine wheat has raised concerns. “The product does not fully meet the requirements of the Brazilian industry, especially in terms of protein content,” he says. Despite a large harvest of around 27.8 million tonnes, quality issues have led mills to seek alternative sources, including the Northern Hemisphere.

Wheat from other origins comes at a higher cost due to a 10% tariff on imports exceeding 750,000 tonnes.

According to Luiz Pacheco of T&F Consulting, the low quality of Argentine wheat has stalled the market. “Most of the production is of lower quality, with about 10.5% protein, while Brazil requires at least 11.5%,” he says.

Another concern is the war in the Middle East, which may impact Argentina’s next wheat crop. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has reduced its projection for planted area to 6.5 million hectares in the 2026/27 season, 3% below the previous crop, due to rising fertilizer costs.

According to Rubens Barbosa, this may require additional purchases of 1 million to 1.5 million tonnes from other origins, increasing the participation of countries such as the United States, Canada, and Russia, while maintaining the relevance of Paraguay and Uruguay.

For the coming months, the outlook remains challenging. Until the arrival of Argentina’s new harvest, Brazil is expected to rely more heavily on Northern Hemisphere suppliers to ensure quality and supply.

Source: Valor Econômico

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