Brazil’s trade surplus leans more heavily on oil exports

In 2025, Brazil’s trade balance became more reliant on crude oil and petroleum products. The surplus from these items reached $29.6 billion last year, a record high. The previous peak was in 2024, at $28.2 billion. The oil and petroleum products balance in 2025 accounted for 43.3% of the country’s total trade surplus of $68.3 billion, up from 38% in 2024.

The figures come from the Indicator of Foreign Trade (Icomex) compiled by Fundação Getulio Vargas’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre-FGV), based on data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex/Mdic). Crude oil exports have been driving the increase in the surplus of oil and byproducts, said Lia Valls, a professor at UERJ and an associate researcher at Ibre-FGV.

“Even with less favorable prices, the volume of crude oil exports has been driving the oil and petroleum products surplus,” Valls said. Terms of trade—the ratio between export and import prices—have remained relatively stable over the past four years, she added.

According to Secex data, the average crude oil export price fell 9.8% in 2025 compared to the previous year. Export volumes moved in the opposite direction. Icomex shows a 10.7% increase in crude oil shipment volumes in 2025 compared with 2024. The growth in volumes has been building over the past decade. Compared with 2016—when the oil and petroleum products balance turned positive as crude output surged with the pre-salt—the increase reached nearly 150% (148%).

In 2025, Brazil’s average annual oil production hit a record 3.77 million barrels a day, according to the National Petroleum Agency (ANP). Natural gas output averaged a record 179 million cubic meters a day. Combined oil and gas production rose 12.7% from the previous peak in 2023 and 13.3% from 2024.

While higher output has supported rising crude export volumes, Valls noted that the balance for refined products remains negative. In 2025, the trade deficit in petroleum products totaled $8.5 billion, similar to the figures recorded in 2023 and 2024.

“Brazil has become a net exporter of crude oil, with sizable and growing volumes. That is good for the country. The problem is that we do not add value to the product. We have not expanded refining capacity and therefore cannot increase petroleum products output,” said José Augusto de Castro, president of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB).

For Welber Barral, a partner at BMJ and a former foreign trade secretary, the lack of refining capacity stands out even more in a country where road transportation plays a dominant role. According to the National Transportation Confederation (CNT), road transportation accounts for 65% of cargo movement and 95% of passenger transportation nationwide.

ANP data show that imports of petroleum products also increased in 2025. Imports of gasoline A—the pure fuel without ethanol—rose 27.6% from 2024, while imports of diesel A, also pure and without biodiesel blending, increased 19.4%. Secex figures likewise indicate an 11% rise in the volume of petroleum product imports in 2025 compared with 2024. Prices fell 8.2%, helping to contain the refined product trade deficit.

Crude oil production volumes are expected to grow at least into the early part of the next decade, and potential exploration in Brazil’s Equatorial Margin could extend that horizon. The government’s argument for developing the new area, according to Valls, is to generate resources to back the energy transition. However, how those funds would be allocated remains an open question.

Regardless of what happens in the Equatorial Margin, current trade data underscore the need to further diversify Brazil’s export basket, Valls pointed out. “We cannot rely only on oil.”

Castro, of AEB, argued that oil has reinforced the basic, low-value-added profile of Brazilian exports. “We take it out of the ground, load it onto a ship, and send it away,” he noted, drawing a parallel with soybeans. Soy output has also been expanding, with a record harvest in 2025, boosting shipments. “We are exporting more soybeans in raw form and less processed product, such as meal or oil.”

Considering Brazil’s soybean export basket—including meal, oil, seed soybeans, flour, and sauce—the share of raw beans rose from 76% in 2016 to 82.3% in 2025. Soybean meal fell from 20.4% to 15%, while crude soybean oil declined from 3.2% to 2.5%.

In 2025, crude oil was Brazil’s top export product, accounting for 12.8% of total export value. Soybeans followed closely, at 12.5%. Together, the two commodities represented 25.3% of the country’s exports.

“We are essentially dependent on agricultural commodities and oil. Any global shock that reduces prices for these commodities could negatively affect Brazil’s trade performance,” Barral warned.

Oil prices, Castro added, are particularly sensitive, fluctuating with any conflict or decisions taken by OPEC+, which brings together the world’s largest producers.

The concentration of exports has also been followed by a growing reliance on China. Last year, China absorbed 45% of all Brazilian crude oil exports, while the U.S.—the second-largest buyer—accounted for 10.6%. In soybeans, China’s share reached 79.3%.

For Castro, diversifying exports is even more critical in the current geopolitical environment, where trade relationships are being reshaped. He noted that U.S. intervention in Venezuela could affect Brazilian oil exports, though any impact would likely be medium to long-term and would depend on a tangible increase in Venezuelan production.

Source: Valor International

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