Dollar Revenue from Agribusiness Exports Declines in 2024

Dollar revenue from Brazilian agribusiness product exports fell by 1.3% in 2024 compared to the previous year, totaling $164.4 billion, according to research conducted by Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics), at Esalq/USP, based on data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services (MDIC) and the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Siscomex system).

This decline follows four consecutive years of growth and record-breaking revenues from agribusiness exports (2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023).

Cepea researchers highlight, however, that due to a 6% depreciation of the Brazilian real against the dollar in 2024 (adjusted for Brazilian inflation), revenue in reais grew by 4.6%.

The decrease in dollar revenue is mainly linked to a 3% reduction in exported volume in 2024, as the average annual price in dollars increased by 1.7%.

The lower export volume of Brazilian agribusiness products is primarily attributed to a 28.8% drop in soybean complex products (grain, meal, and oil) and corn shipments. On the other hand, exports of cotton (+71%), coffee (+30%), sugar (+22%), and beef (+26%) saw significant increases.

The chart below builds on DataLiner data, providing an overview of Brazilian sugar exports from January 2021 to December 2024.

Sugar Exports | Jan 2021 – Dec 2024 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Outlook for 2025

The 2024/25 Brazilian harvest of soybeans, corn, and cotton is expected to grow, ensuring greater availability for domestic consumption and exports. However, dollar prices will depend on global supply, which includes key producers such as Argentina, the United States, and Ukraine.

Regarding beef, supply constraints are expected to persist in 2025 due to the cattle cycle in both Brazil and the United States. Additionally, Chinese demand will be crucial in price trends, as China accounts for more than half of Brazil’s beef exports.

The chart provides historical data on Brazil’s beef exports from January 2021 to December 2024. The data was derived from Datamar’s DataLiner.

Bovine Meat Exports | Jan 2021 – Dez 2024 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

The dollar is expected to remain above R$ 5.50, benefiting the agribusiness export sector. However, uncertainties are increasing due to the imposition of tariffs, which could impact product prices in consumer markets and lead to a reorganization of trade partnerships among countries.

Source: Conexão Safra

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