Grain production may reach 353.4 million tonnes

Grain production in Brazil is forecast to reach 353.4 million tonnes in the 2025/26 crop season. If confirmed, this will set a new record, with a “slight increase” of 0.3% compared with the 2024/25 cycle.

The projection appears in the 5th Grain Crop Survey, released this Thursday (12) by the National Supply Company (Conab), and takes into account the start of the harvest of first-crop products.

According to the agency, planted area is expected to reach 83.3 million hectares, 1.9% higher than in the previous cycle — an increase of 1.5 million hectares.

“Average national crop productivity, however, is expected to decline by 1.5%, from 4,310 kilograms per hectare in 2024/25 to 4,244 kilograms per hectare in 2025/26,” Conab detailed.

Soybeans

The survey projects a record soybean crop of 178 million tonnes — an increase of 6.5 million tonnes compared with the previous cycle.

According to the agency, the strong result is due to favorable weather conditions in the main producing regions.

“The oilseed harvest has already begun in most states and has reached 17.4% of the planted area, a percentage higher than in the same period last year and slightly below the five-year average, according to the Crop Progress report released this week by the state company,” Conab added.

In Mato Grosso, 46.8% of soybean production has already been harvested. According to Conab, yields in the country’s largest soybean-producing state are close to the initial estimates.

Corn

Corn production projections show a 1.9% decline compared with the previous cycle. Conab estimates total output across all crop seasons at 138.4 million tonnes.

“Even with an estimated reduction in production at the end of the current cycle, first-crop corn shows a 7.2% increase in planted area, estimated at 4 million hectares, and production of 26.7 million tonnes, up 7.1% from the previous harvest,” the company reported.

Regarding the second corn crop, planting has already begun on a total area of 17.9 million hectares. Projected production stands at 109.3 million tonnes.

Rice and beans

For rice, whose planting is nearly complete, expectations point to an 11.6% reduction in planted area, totaling 1.6 million hectares.

The largest producer is the state of Rio Grande do Sul, where crops are in full development. Water reservoirs supplying producers have recovered after a period of low levels. Conab estimates rice production at 10.9 million tonnes.

Bean production across the three annual crops is expected to total around 3 million tonnes. The first crop is projected to show an 11.4% reduction in planted area, totaling 804,700 hectares, with an estimated production of 967,200 tonnes — 9% lower than the previous harvest.

Cotton

The survey indicates cotton production of 3.8 million tonnes for the current season, across a total planted area of 2 million hectares (3.2% smaller than in 2024/25). Conab notes that 88.1% of the area intended for cotton lint has already been sown.

Below is an overview of Brazil’s containerized cotton shipments. The data is sourced from DataLiner, Datamar’s foreign trade intelligence platform.

Cotton Exports | Jan 2022 – Dec 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (clique aqui para solicitar uma demonstração) 

For the 2025/26 corn season, exports and domestic consumption are both expected to rise, reaching an estimated 46.5 million tonnes and 94.5 million tonnes, respectively. Even with the increase, ending stocks in January 2027 are projected to remain around 12 million tonnes.

Source: Pedro Peduzzi – Agência Brasil

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