Higher Global Supply Makes It Harder for Brazil to Export Its Corn Crop

Brazilian corn exports are facing stronger competition in international markets as supplies increase among the world’s leading exporters. According to data released by the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea), the situation is making it more challenging for Brazil to market its 2025/26 crop abroad, while shipments have declined at the start of the commercial cycle.

According to Imea, Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) projects corn exports at 43.91 million tonnes in the 2025/26 crop year. The volume represents a 5.49% increase from the previous season.

Despite the projected growth, actual shipments have been running below the pace recorded a year earlier. Based on Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) data cited by Imea, Brazil exported 6.59 million tonnes of corn between July and August 2026, down 28.93% year over year.

Over the same period, the average corn premium at Santos fell 9.66%. According to Imea, the decline points to weaker support from overseas demand for Brazilian corn.

At the same time, stronger domestic demand has intensified competition for corn supplies, adding further pressure on the volume available for export.

Brazilian Corn Exports Face Stronger Global Competition

International competition has also increased as major exporting countries expand their presence in the market. The United States is projected to export 87 million tonnes of corn, up 21.03% from the previous crop year.

The increase in U.S. exports is supported by ample supplies and strong sales across markets in the Americas and Asia. The expansion is intensifying competition in the global market at the same time that Brazil is seeking outlets for its 2025/26 crop.

Argentina is also expected to play a larger role in global corn trade. The country is projected to export 45 million tonnes, up 30.43% from the previous season. Greater Argentine supply increases competition with Brazil in African and Asian markets. The rise in available Argentine corn is intensifying competition for international buyers and putting additional pressure on Brazil’s competitiveness.

Ukraine, meanwhile, is expected to export 22.40 million tonnes of corn, an increase of 9.27%. According to Imea, the country remains focused on European and Mediterranean markets despite logistics constraints. With the United States, Argentina and Ukraine all increasing exports, international markets are set to have more corn available from major suppliers.

Stronger overseas competition and the slower pace of Brazilian shipments are increasing the importance of factors that determine the competitiveness of Brazilian corn exports. Prices, exchange rates and port competitiveness will all play an important role in moving the country’s crop to international markets. The ability to compete abroad is therefore becoming a central factor in the performance of Brazil’s corn exports during the 2025/26 season.

Source: Agrolink

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