U.S. coffee industry warns tariffs threaten supply of Brazilian beans

The imposition of an additional 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee in July 2025 increased costs for importers and caused Brazilian exports to the U.S. market to decline. In November, coffee was included on a list of products exempted from the surcharge by the U.S. government, but Brazilian sales to the country have yet to recover.

The following analysis highlights the decline in Brazilian coffee exports bound for the U.S., based on container throughput data compiled by Datamar:

Coffee Exports to the U.S. | Jan 2023 – Mar 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

In Murray’s view, the Brazilian coffee trade with the U.S. could eventually return to levels seen before the tariffs were imposed. In April this year, the United States remained the leading destination for Brazilian coffee exports, according to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé). Even so, shipment volumes fell 19.52% compared with the same month in 2025, dropping from 561,000 bags to 451,506 bags of coffee.

Over the first four months of the year, the United States ranked as the second-largest buyer of Brazilian coffee behind Germany. Shipments to the U.S. declined 41.46% during the period, from 2.373 million bags to 1.389 million bags.

“We need Brazilian coffee. I am very optimistic that we will indeed see more exports,” Murray said.

In addition to green coffee beans, roasted and ground coffee, as well as decaffeinated products, were also included on the exemption list. Brazilian instant coffee, however, remains subject to tariffs. Industry groups in both Brazil and the U.S. are pushing for the product to be included in the exemption.

“Many people in the United States consume instant coffee, and they are worried about the economic situation. If it becomes more expensive, it will be harder for Americans to buy it,” he said. “Instant coffee is also an important input for the ready-to-drink beverage industry in different formulations. It is clear that we need an exemption.”

Murray also highlighted the joint efforts between U.S. importers and Brazilian exporters to promote Brazilian coffee in the country. He emphasized that, together with Cecafé, the association presented what he described as strong arguments to U.S. authorities in favor of removing the surcharge.

While the U.S. government imposed tariffs on Brazil, it also opened an investigation under Section 301 of U.S. trade law, questioning what it considers irregular trade practices. “We have consistently argued that, without exemptions for Brazilian coffee, costs will rise, which could fuel inflation in the United States,” he pointed out.

During a panel discussion at the seminar, Murray noted that the first round of import tariffs imposed by the Trump administration was considered illegal by the U.S. Supreme Court. He cautioned, however, that the court’s position does not eliminate the risk of new tariffs.

Currently, a temporary 10% global tariff on imports into the United States remains in place and is scheduled to expire in July. Murray said he believes the White House is already preparing new measures to continue using tariffs as a political tool.

“We have seen the ways he [Trump] uses tariffs, and he does it in a very unorthodox manner. This is not a normal situation, and it is not going to change. Trump sees tariffs as a weapon and will do what he believes he should do,” he said.